Case booster are bull sh!t

(Jostabeere) #321

[quote=“FireWorks;168234”]Now here comes the thing that went under in the rage:

The crux is that you can do nothing with the drop values of 10boosters. It is basically the zero of the system.
If you have 5b its not twice as long as the 10b value…
It is half as long as the maximum (the 1 or even 0b). A maximum that is unknown to us!
Took me awhile to grasp that.

If they set the base value of 0 boosters to, say, an equivalent of 1every50hours. Then 5 boosters make it linear 1every25hours.

[/quote]

We got told multiple times that 10 boosters. Mean. Exactly. The. Same. Chance. As. Normal. Cases. Period.
One normal case has a drop chance of 30% every game. s0 10 boosters make Special cases have 30% after EVERY game.
And multiple people play for 10-20-30 games and don’t get any Special case, but normal cases. So the drop rate CAN’t be the same.

(Runeforce) #322

That’s pretty much what Fireworks just said. The rest is speculation on your part:

[quote=“Jostabeere;168242”]
One normal case has a drop chance of 30% every game. s0 10 boosters make Special cases have 30% after EVERY game.
And multiple people play for 10-20-30 games and don’t get any Special case, but normal cases. So the drop rate CAN’t be the same.[/quote]

Sometimes I get amased by the attitude of some people, and disregard of evidence. That’s FUD, Jostabeere! But please, prove me wrong.

(FireWorks) #323

[quote=“Jostabeere;168242”][quote=“FireWorks;168234”]Now here comes the thing that went under in the rage:

The crux is that you can do nothing with the drop values of 10boosters. It is basically the zero of the system.
If you have 5b its not twice as long as the 10b value…
It is half as long as the maximum (the 1 or even 0b). A maximum that is unknown to us!
Took me awhile to grasp that.

If they set the base value of 0 boosters to, say, an equivalent of 1every50hours. Then 5 boosters make it linear 1every25hours.

[/quote]

We got told multiple times that 10 boosters. Mean. Exactly. The. Same. Chance. As. Normal. Cases. Period.
One normal case has a drop chance of 30% every game. s0 10 boosters make Special cases have 30% after EVERY game.
And multiple people play for 10-20-30 games and don’t get any Special case, but normal cases. So the drop rate CAN’t be the same.[/quote]

Lets put aside that the 30% are an assumption by the community and not a fact.

What is the only way to confirm what you (and me, and the dev) just said?
Find a person with 10 boosters that actually exists and not only claims it.
The challenge still stands.

If we got that person, we can have a look…

(eclipsedHouse) #324

What is the defined drop rate for a normal case? Is it a percent chance…like you have a 30% chance each match of getting a case…or is the rate time based…like every 1 hour you get a case?

If it’s the former, we can get good estimates for each number of boosters. If it’s the latter, we have no clue.

(FireWorks) #325

[quote=“eclipsedHouse;168247”]What is the defined drop rate for a normal case? Is it a percent chance…like you have a 30% chance each match of getting a case…or is the rate time based…like every 1 hour you get a case?

If it’s the former, we can get good estimates for each number of boosters. If it’s the latter, we have no clue.
[/quote]

Its the later… from experience Id say it is around every 40mins to an hour.

Hence stopwatch games drop you more crates than objective mode.

(eclipsedHouse) #326

[quote=“FireWorks;168250”]Its the later… from experience Id say it is around every 40mins to an hour.

Hence stopwatch games drop you more crates than objective mode.[/quote]

There are people that reported getting a case or two early on with no boosters. If the drop rate is time based and the zero booster time is long, this does not make sense.

This is why I believed the drop rate was a percent chance and some were just very lucky to have received an event case with zero boosters.

(Jostabeere) #327

That’s pretty much what Fireworks just said. The rest is speculation on your part:

[quote=“Jostabeere;168242”]
One normal case has a drop chance of 30% every game. s0 10 boosters make Special cases have 30% after EVERY game.
And multiple people play for 10-20-30 games and don’t get any Special case, but normal cases. So the drop rate CAN’t be the same.[/quote]

Sometimes I get amased by the attitude of some people, and disregard of evidence. That’s FUD, Jostabeere! But please, prove me wrong.[/quote]

Okay. even if the 30% isn’t true. Let’s say it’s a different number. Why aren’t they as common as normal cases when they’re supposed to be?

(Runeforce) #328

You are the one postulating that it ain’t, but not willing to back it up. Obviously, if this is entirely rng-based, (as every other previous event, just with better odds,) it seems, considering the anecdotal evidence, like the extreme ends of bad luck has not yet been eliminated, which is unfortunate.

(Randomdeath) #329

You are the one postulating that it ain’t, but not willing to back it up. Obviously, if this is entirely rng-based, (as every other previous event, just with better odds,) it seems, considering the anecdotal evidence, like the extreme ends of bad luck has not yet been eliminated, which is unfortunate.[/quote]

If this is extreme bad luck, then i think to fix this the devs should at least up the chances a little so that luck isnt as terrible

(FireWorks) #330

[quote=“eclipsedHouse;168258”][quote=“FireWorks;168250”]Its the later… from experience Id say it is around every 40mins to an hour.

Hence stopwatch games drop you more crates than objective mode.[/quote]

There are people that reported getting a case or two early on with no boosters. If the drop rate is time based and the zero booster time is long, this does not make sense.

This is why I believed the drop rate was a percent chance and some were just very lucky to have received an event case with zero boosters.

[/quote]

Careful, things are complicated. You know how crits work in DotA2? Why a PA slashes on creeps to “build up crits”? To make the chance higher for the next hit on a player to be the desired crit:
http://dota2.gamepedia.com/Pseudo-random_distribution

The short version is: The longer you dont have a drop, the more likely it gets.

Means you can always have it proc, but the longer the time passes, the more the chance is converging to 100%.

(FireWorks) #331

That’s pretty much what Fireworks just said. The rest is speculation on your part:

[quote=“Jostabeere;168242”]
One normal case has a drop chance of 30% every game. s0 10 boosters make Special cases have 30% after EVERY game.
And multiple people play for 10-20-30 games and don’t get any Special case, but normal cases. So the drop rate CAN’t be the same.[/quote]

Sometimes I get amased by the attitude of some people, and disregard of evidence. That’s FUD, Jostabeere! But please, prove me wrong.[/quote]

Okay. even if the 30% isn’t true. Let’s say it’s a different number. Why aren’t they as common as normal cases when they’re supposed to be?[/quote]

And this is what we would like to find out. Now can you provide us a factual test case?

(FireWorks) #332

We are face P-RNGesus here. And hes a bitch. With teeth.

(Gandalf_The_Bae) #333

Whats the latest update on these boosters?

seems you have more luck getting a case with 0 boosters, which just seems plain wrong.http://i.imgur.com/bPm6u2h.png

(MarsRover) #334

[quote=“FireWorks;168240”]In which way?
The only 2things we knew were:
10b=1case drop time
linear growth.

and then everyone jumped to conclusions and failed at the truth. including myself[/quote]

Let me quote 2 things:

  1. in-game help: “a full stack of 10 drop boosters will accelerate the drop rate to the equivalent of equipment cases”
  2. Exedore: “the drop rate boost is indeed linear”

Acting on these two very precise bits of information is not “jumping into conclusions”. At no point before the event we were told anything about any complicated formulas including ticks, games played or whatever mumbo-jumbo What we were told in in no uncertain terms, is this:

  1. 10 boosters = expect a case in a few games just like a normal case.
  2. then the lead game designer says that boosters accelerate drop rate in a linear matter = if you have 5 boosters expect a case in twice the amount of games it takes to get a regular case, with 2 boosters - five times as long. I expect him to know what he is saying, because that’s what linear means.

We’re way, way past the point where the differences for, any amount of boosters, can be described as a statistical anomaly. Boosters do not work as they were described.

I appreciate you trying to help but what you are doing is just confirming how they actually work, which we can all see. That’s not the point. The point is we were acting on wrong information when buying cycles and boosters. We’re almost a week into the event and the only info from SD/Nexon we got is a vague half-explanation that contradicts both points above. Why do you act like it’s OK? It is not OK.

(kittz0r) #335

[quote=“Gandalf_The_Bae;168281”]Whats the latest update on these boosters?

seems you have more luck getting a case with 0 boosters, which just seems plain wrong.http://i.imgur.com/bPm6u2h.png
[/quote]

No,

0 Boosters you will get every 184 Game a Case

10 Boosters you will get every 177 Game a Case

:slight_smile:

(Gandalf_The_Bae) #336

[quote=“twilightBreakfast;168286”][quote=“Gandalf_The_Bae;168281”]Whats the latest update on these boosters?

seems you have more luck getting a case with 0 boosters, which just seems plain wrong.http://i.imgur.com/bPm6u2h.png
[/quote]

No,

0 Boosters you will get every 184 Game a Case

10 Boosters you will get every 177 Game a Case

:slight_smile:
[/quote]

WOW 10 boosters that cost over 100K in credits saves you a whole 7 games, totaly worth it, totaly got more luck with 10 boosters than you do with 0 /s

BS, how can the rates of 10 boosters be (pretty much) identical to 0 boosters when they are supposed to up the drop rate to regular case drop levels (~30% a game),

10 boosters should allow you to have a case in a few games, NOT 177 games.

wish i hadnt spend 50k and countless hours on boosters, becuse they do NOT work as intended.

(bgyoshi) #337

If that chart is at all legit, it just proves they don’t work as intended

28 cases in 5165 games is a .005/game drop rate.
9 cases in 2310 games is .003/game
5 in 1885 is .002
2 in 1635 is .001
6 in 1295 is .004
.0004
0
0
0
.011
.005

The numbers aren’t even close to consistent in that pool of data, wherever it came from.

(Gandalf_The_Bae) #338

[quote=“MidnightButterSweats;168293”]

The numbers aren’t even close to consistent in that pool of data, wherever it came from.[/quote]

They came from a poll on reddit with over 450 responses

(Randomdeath) #339

[quote=“FireWorks;168271”][quote=“eclipsedHouse;168258”][quote=“FireWorks;168250”]Its the later… from experience Id say it is around every 40mins to an hour.

Hence stopwatch games drop you more crates than objective mode.[/quote]

There are people that reported getting a case or two early on with no boosters. If the drop rate is time based and the zero booster time is long, this does not make sense.

This is why I believed the drop rate was a percent chance and some were just very lucky to have received an event case with zero boosters.

[/quote]

Careful, things are complicated. You know how crits work in DotA2? Why a PA slashes on creeps to “build up crits”? To make the chance higher for the next hit on a player to be the desired crit:
http://dota2.gamepedia.com/Pseudo-random_distribution

The short version is: The longer you dont have a drop, the more likely it gets.

Means you can always have it proc, but the longer the time passes, the more the chance is converging to 100%.[/quote]

If what you say is true, then the developers lied to our faces. They said the boosters increase drop rates IN the update notes! If they work like this than it just says “Ok this guy but this many Cycles into these here boosters so the longer he plays the better chance he has at getting a drop” Instead of actually increasing the drop rate. ALSO Can you explain why NORMAL cases are dropping ALMOST EVERY SINGLE GAME? With boosters cases are dropping WAYY more. This is broken. The developers EVEN COMPLAINED that multiple case buying will NEVER HAPPEN because they dont want peoples inventories to grow too large!!!

(Runeforce) #340

Made with skewed questions, and the opportunity for respondants to tamper with the overall result. Hardly conclusive!