[QUOTE=shirosae;348046]Yeah, this was dealt with yesterday.
But y’know, thanks for playing. And also for the demonstration that you aren’t reading the thread before spewing the nonsense; I was wondering, but the confirmation is nice.
Anyway, I was thinking a bit more about the DoD even-spread stuff Kendle was talking about.
If you take the totally circular spread pattern, and assign the maximum radius R, and scale it so R can run from 0 to 1 (so a bullet can land anywhere in the circle), then the area of the circle is pi.
The total probability of a bullet landing inside the circle is 1, so you have an easy conversion from area size into probability.
The inner ten percent of radius (R = 0 --> 0.1) generates an area of 0.01 pi --> 1% chance of bullet hit.
The outer ten percent of radius (R = 0.9 -> 1.0) generates an area of 0.19 pi --> 19% chance of a bullet hit. (EDIT: Fix’d)
(Originally read: The outer ten percent of radius (R = 0.1 -> 1.0) generates an area of 0.19 pi --> 19% chance of a bullet hit.) D’oh. The outer 10% isn’t R = 0.1 -> 1.0.
This is trivially obvious, since the outer 10% radius region of the ring has 19 times the area of the inner 10% radius region.
That is, the cumulative probability of finding a bullet rises as r^2. For weapon effectiveness, an ‘even’ spread would be a gun where the cumulative probability rises linearly, so there’s as much chance of a bullet being at max radius as there is of it being dead on.
Trying to balance things in terms of areas just breaks everything.
It’s obvious as soon as you focus on the system properly, but even so, wow. This is kinda deceptive at first glance. Even spread doesn’t help bad aim guy in the diagrams I posted because the areas are equal, so by definition both probabilities will be the same, but yeah, wow. Oh, also, I intentionally set the ‘lottery spread’ pictures up with roughly the same area of covered chest/shoulders between the good/bad aim, to make the other odds even.[/QUOTE]
Actually, my flame spewing community member, I must apologise, my browser had not refreshed the following page of comments even though I had pressed “F5” this morning.
So yes, it was said before, I just had not seen it…yet. So apologies. But thanks for testing my flame retardant jacket! 