Post your weapon skins from locked cases
Lord_Coctus
(Your worst knifemare.)
#21
I don’t know if I should be happy about getting something not the lowest rarity, or disappointed because of what it is.
teflonlove
(Teflon Love)
#22
@Nail said:
the math is not how you think, buying more cards will never ensure you get what you want, every time you get a case is just like the first
While this is true for every single event of you opening a case, when opening multiple cases dependent probability kicks in for the sum of events.
When the probability to get a cobalt quality weapon is 1.1%, the probability not to get one is 98.9% when opening the first case. For the second case, the probability is the same.
However, when opening the first case, you might have gotten a cobalt waepon, so the probability of not getting a cobalt weapon in two cases is 98.9% * 98.9% which is 97.8%. This means with two cases the probability of at least one of them containing a cobalt weapon is already 2.2%.
With 10 cases, it’s (1 - (1 - 0.011) ^ 10) which is 10.5%.
And with 60 cases as suggested by @PorkyPerson it is (1 - (1 - 0.011) ^ 60), which is 48.5%. So his math is sound.
buying more cards will never ensure you get what you want
That is correct. No matter how many cases you buy, you will never get the probability for a cobalt weapon to 100%. Even with 1000 cases, the probability is “just” 99.9984%.
dlux
(dlux)
#24
This is freaking awful, who can honestly say they are happy with the way SD implemented this skin gambling.
PorkyPerson
(PorkyPerson)
#25
@dlux said:
This is freaking awful, who can honestly say they are happy with the way SD implemented this skin gambling.
Yep, it’s the gambling that I hate. I would rather select a skin and work toward it. The way it is the skin you want may literally be out of reach, but another person will drop it right away and not want it.
But there are no trades and it sounds like the only things they will put on the market are cases. What they might not be thinking through is that without skins on the market the keys won’t be worth very much.
PorkyPerson
(PorkyPerson)
#27
Edited to locked vs unlocked instead of event vs normal.
Oh my god, I just noticed that the event unlocked cases actually have higher drop rates. Normal Locked cases have lower rates on silver(17.5%), gold(5.2%), and cobalt(0.7%).
So for $2.49 the cobalts aren’t 1.1%, they are 0.7%.
To have a 50% chance you need to open 62 unlocked cases. It would take 98 locked cases. That’s $309 worth of unlocked cases or $244 worth of keys for locked cases, and you only have a 50% chance.
I don’t know why this makes me so angry, I don’t even like these cobalt weapons.
Oh, it’s the gambling that bothers me. Every roll costs real money and there’s no progression. They talked about a tiered weapon fragment system where you could craft the next tier up. They also talked about recycling weapon cases for weapon fragments, so real money would only give you a gamble to shortcut.
FalC_16
(FalC_16)
#29
@K1X455 said:
What I got from the Community Gift
Lucky you i got freakin felix, FML
l2c
(l2c)
#30
Djiesse
(DB Genome editor)
#31
@PorkyPerson said:
Oh my god, I just noticed that the event cases actually have boosted drop rates. Normal cases have lower rates on silver(17.5%), gold(5.2%), and cobalt(0.7%).So after this “generous” event cobalts go from 1.1% down to 0.7%.
It’s pretty considerable.
To have a 50% chance you need to open 62 event cases. After the event that goes up to 98. That’s $154 during the event or $244 after the event, and you only have a 50% chance.
The CoreSEC, KMA and Royal Force cases are NOT event cases, they are the first series of “standard” weapon cases and their drop odds are not related to the ongoing event. The two different sets of odds are for cases bought (unlocked) vs cases dropped randomly at the end of matches (which you need to unlock with a key). So you have two options:
- Buy weapon cases with better odds of higher rarities (B=64.7/S=26.3/G=7.9/C=1.1)
- Buy keys and wait for random cases to drop with slightly worse odds (76.6/17.5/5.2/0.7)
Keep in mind the second option is half the price of the first one, but you also don’t get to choose the “brand” of the case and have to wait to get lucky with a drop…
OwynTyler
(OwynTyler)
#32
@FalC_16 said:
@K1X455 said:
What I got from the Community GiftLucky you i got freakin felix, FML
I wanted felix but got dreiss instead T_T
boerhae
(boerhae)
#33
I’ve gotten 9 unwanted bronzes in a row so far, don’t tease me like this
Oh, and I got the Kek10 from the reward case too.
Artyrim
(Artyrim)
#34
@FalC_16 said:
@K1X455 said:
What I got from the Community GiftLucky you i got freakin felix, FML
Got felix as well and was “aiming” for Crotz >.<
PorkyPerson
(PorkyPerson)
#35
@Djiesse said:
@PorkyPerson said:
Oh my god, I just noticed that the event cases actually have boosted drop rates. Normal cases have lower rates on silver(17.5%), gold(5.2%), and cobalt(0.7%).So after this “generous” event cobalts go from 1.1% down to 0.7%.
It’s pretty considerable.
To have a 50% chance you need to open 62 event cases. After the event that goes up to 98. That’s $154 during the event or $244 after the event, and you only have a 50% chance.
The CoreSEC, KMA and Royal Force cases are NOT event cases, they are the first series of “standard” weapon cases and their drop odds are not related to the ongoing event. The two different sets of odds are for cases bought (unlocked) vs cases dropped randomly at the end of matches (which you need to unlock with a key). So you have two options:
- Buy weapon cases with better odds of higher rarities (B=64.7/S=26.3/G=7.9/C=1.1)
- Buy keys and wait for random cases to drop with slightly worse odds (76.6/17.5/5.2/0.7)
Keep in mind the second option is half the price of the first one, but you also don’t get to choose the “brand” of the case and have to wait to get lucky with a drop…
My impression was that the unlocked cases and event currency keys were only going to be sold while the event was on.
Either way my math stands. $2.50 for 0.7% and presumably $5 for 1.1%.
Djiesse
(DB Genome editor)
#36
@PorkyPerson said:
My impression was that the unlocked cases and event currency keys were only going to be sold while the event was on.Either way my math stands. $2.50 for 0.7% and presumably $5 for 1.1%.
Buying cases and keys with event currency will definitely end with the event, but both should remain available for cash in the store afterwards. Your math is correct, it just that the two alternatives are not tied to the event and so are not time-limited.
NK.NewNightmare
(NK.NewNightmare)
#38
the Links at least. btw I didn’t expect much from all the Cases I’ve opened - I mean I didn’t expect to get - like a Gold refined skin for example so overall I’m pretty happy with what I got, especially over the Dreiss Contraband Skin (although that wasn’t a Locked Case as you know)
Artyrim
(Artyrim)
#40
@ThePigVomit said:
So I tried oneFUUUUUUUUUUUUUU…
Gambling always gives you a “hope” so you can try even more