@M4st0d0n said:
@bgyoshi said:
So I figure you’re guaranteed one random case for any given 50 minutes of in game play.
Nope.
You have p=0.02 chance of having a card per minute.
You have p=0.98 chance of not having a card per minute.
You have p=0.98^50=0.36 chance to not have a card for 50 minutes spent.
You have p=1-0.36 chance of having at least one card for 50 mins. 64%. Not guaranteed.
There’s an important assumption to note about this. You assume its true random with a roll every minute, not pseudo random.
I don’t bring this up to be a jerk and call you out on the internet, please don’t think I have any malicious intentions. I want some answers, and really like writing explanatory math things.
To those unfamiliar: Pseudo random chances reduce the perceived win/loss streaks. They are common in competitive games, such as Dota 2. (Click that to get a more in depth explanation than what I’m giving here.) Pseudo random starts with some value, and increases on every check that results in a fail.
For example: Our event is rolling a d6, a success is rolling a value of 6. (If we stopped here, it would be true random.) Every time we fail, we change one of the faces to 6. Every time we succeed, we reset the dice to one side with 6. On the first roll, we have a 1/6 chance to succeed. If we fail the first roll, we have a 2 faces with 6, so a 1/3 chance to succeed. If we manage to fail 5 rolls in a row, we have 6 faces with 6, so a 100% chance to succeed. The next roll, we are back to 1/6.
Pseudo random can yield a guaranteed outcome if the streak of failures gets high enough. This means the original assumed model could be valid as a pseudo random distribution with starting chance 0 that increases by 0.02 (2%) every minute, meaning that at 50 minutes, a case would be guaranteed.
I do not think this is the model DB uses.
I would hazard a guess (let me reiterate, a GUESS) that it is pseudo random, but using a model where the roll is made at the end of the game, with a chance of success added based on the game length, as well as a chance for each game (or maybe total game time) since the last case drop.
Let me explain with numbers, but know that they are for the ease of my math, not what I think they might be.
Shooter McRifleman starts his first ever day of Dirty Bomb with a 10% base chance to get a case drop. His first match lasts 15 minutes, adding 2% per minute to get a case, bringing his total to 40%. He isn’t lucky enough to a case. His next game also goes 15 minutes, bringing him to 40%, but his previous game not giving him a case increases this by another 20, to 60%.
I would love to know how case drop mechanics actually function. @stayfreshshoe can you see if you can get anything about that to be public?
