So is something simply being lost in translation here?
You agree you can’t predict the direction each bullet will take, only that it will land within what we’ve been referring to as the “spread” of the weapon? If so great, we’re on the same page with that one and you’re not the imbecile I was beginning to think you were.
You maintain you can predict the spread, i.e. know in advance, or at some point, that there’s going to be spread and you really ought to do something (whatever is within your control) to deal with that. Fine, no-one’s ever argued otherwise as far as I can see. I and others are only talking about the distribution of individual bullets with the “cone of fire” of the weapon. In other words no-one’s arguing that we can’t predict there’s going to be spread, we just can’t predict what the effect of that spread wil be.
It still remains that spread = luck, because the individual trajectory of any given bullet is not within your control, they will each land where a software algorithm puts them, not where you want them. As such some bullets, thru no fault of yours, will miss the target. Some of your opponents bullets will of course miss you, but the number of your bullets that hit your opponent, and the number of his that hit you, may not be the same, and is not within your control, or your opponents, therefore the outcome of the encounter is determined by luck, to an extent.
The “extent” may be small, you may know (predict) there’s going to be a “margin of error” as to precisely where your bullets land, however there’s still a margin of error (imposed on you by the game), something you can’t do anything about (even tho you predicted it would happen) and something that can and does determine the outcome of firefights.
Replace “spread” with “recoil” and you still have a balancing mechanism, something that punishes you for moving contrary to the default movement speed (if it’s agreed that such punishment is justified, and I’m not arguing that it isn’t), however spread is random and un-controllable, recoil is not random (assuming it’s the simple lift your barrel up as you fire sort of recoil) and therefore is controllable.
Assuming we do now agree that spread (as in the existence of it) is predictable, whereas spread (as in the effect of it) isn’t, can we please put this particular debate to bed?