Case Percentages

(eclipsedHouse) #1

Kept tract of what I got out of my last 100 cases…here’s what I got.

Lead - 86% / Iron - 11% / Bronze - 3% / Silver - 0% / Gold - 0% / Cobalt - 0%

Expected percentages are:
Lead - 80% / Iron - 15% / Bronze - 3% / Silver - 1.5% / Gold - .4% / Cobalt - .1%

I understand that the percentages aren’t guarantees and that sometimes you get lucky and sometimes you’re unlucky…

Also understand that this is sort of a pointless exercise…not intended to change anything…but just doing it out of a curiosity…curious to see if over time I really do get close to 2% of cases to be in the silver/gold/cobalt variety.

(L3thalGho5t) #2

I didnt keep track but i have definitely opened 100 in a row now not getting anything better than iron.

(Frogteam) #3

I’ve gotten two Gold loadouts from cases, and definitely haven’t opened 500 cases, probably closer to 200. Lucky me.

(cornJester) #4

I’ve never received a cobalt from a case, free or elite but I have got a decent number of silvers and golds.

(Faraleth) #5

Sadly, this is the case with RNG… in all my time of playing, I have got 1 gold and 1 silver from normal cases. I have lost count of bronzes, but I know I’ve had quite a few. As for iron and lead… -shudder- many, many of them…

RNG is RNG, sadly. The whole point is that it’s random. You could get 3 cobalts in a row - in theory it’s possible. You just need to be lucky… or, you could go a million lead in a row (sounds more like my luck!) xD

But in any case, thanks for the stat share! c:

Out of the 15 elite cases I have ever bought I got: 1 cobalt, 1 gold and 13 silver :c sooooooo… don’t feel too bummed out! xD

(KattiValk) #6

I’ve gotten 3 Golds, 2 Silvers, and a Bronze or two so far. Have you sacrificed your weekly goat to RNGesus yet?

(Jostabeere) #7

Try 1,000 next time for precise calculations. If you have numbers below 1, you need to take atleast 1,000.

(Reddeadcap) #8

I got 2 Cobalts, 3 Golds and 3 silvers and 10 leads… this week, Just my luck?

Goats? I’ve been using cows.

(cornJester) #9

http://i.imgur.com/RnmtSX4.png

(Jostabeere) #10

[quote=“Redcap;62962”]I got 2 Cobalts, 3 Golds and 3 silvers and 10 leads… this week, Just my luck?

Goats? I’ve been using cows.[/quote]
Sacrificenubs lol. You need virgins.

(_Sniff_) #11

http://i.imgur.com/RnmtSX4.png[/quote]

I’m up to 270 equipment cases unopened.

(cornJester) #12

http://i.imgur.com/RnmtSX4.png[/quote]

I’m up to 270 equipment cases unopened.[/quote]

One day you should do a big Rocky style montage of you opening them all.

(LANshark) #13

[quote=“laudatoryLunch;62968”][quote=“Redcap;62962”]I got 2 Cobalts, 3 Golds and 3 silvers and 10 leads… this week, Just my luck?

Goats? I’ve been using cows.[/quote]
Sacrificenubs lol. You need virgins.
[/quote]

could you use your hopes and dreams as an alternative? I have found that it has been successful.

(Reddeadcap) #14

[quote=“LANshark;63046”][quote=“laudatoryLunch;62968”][quote=“Redcap;62962”]I got 2 Cobalts, 3 Golds and 3 silvers and 10 leads… this week, Just my luck?

Goats? I’ve been using cows.[/quote]
Sacrificenubs lol. You need virgins.
[/quote]

could you use your hopes and dreams as an alternative? I have found that it has been successful. [/quote]Ran out of that long before playing Dirty Bomb…

(eclipsedHouse) #15

Just finished my 2nd set of 100 cases:

1st 100: Lead - 86% / Iron - 11% / Bronze - 3% / Silver - 0% / Gold - 0% / Cobalt - 0%
2nd 100: Lead - 86% / Iron - 12% / Bronze - 1% / Silver - 1% / Gold - 0% / Cobalt - 0%
Total 200: Lead - 86% / Iron - 11.5% / Bronze - 2% / Silver - 0.5% / Gold - 0% / Cobalt - 0%

Expected percentages are:
Lead - 80% / Iron - 15% / Bronze - 3% / Silver - 1.5% / Gold - .4% / Cobalt - .1%

Pretty consistent between the two samples of 100 cases.

(JesseKomm) #16

I’ve never opened anything greater than an Iron from a regular case, best I’ve gotten was a Gold from the free elite case. I don’t mind getting a bunch of lead because I’ll just trade them up regardless, in fact I think finding anything below a cobalt is beneficial(Because you’re screwed if you get a cobalt for a merc you don’t like).

(Backuplight) #17

The thing with sample sizes is that they need to be pretty large to be worth anything. If you flip a fair coin with a 50/50 heads or tails outcome 100,000 times, you might expect 50k heads, 50k tails, but the numbers would likely differ. The actual probability of getting exactly 50k heads and 50k tails (1 in 396 chance of this happening, if you’re curious) is weighed up against the probability of all other outcomes . Probabilities will just get closer to the averages as the sample size increases. The problem with this in the case of Dirty Bomb cases is that some of them have pretty small percent chances of dropping, meaning that whilst on average you might expect to see a Cobalt drop once in 1000 cases, but to test this you need a huge sample size.

Essentially, if this were an exercise in determining an unknown probability (so, if the case percentages were hidden from us) of each rarity dropping from regular cases, your numbers would be pretty accurate (within reason). You’d have:

Lead: ~86% / Iron: ~11.5% / Bronze: ~2% / Silver: ~0.5% / Gold <1% / Cobalt <1%

If we had every player who had ever opened a case submitting this, we’d be even closer. But it would still (likely) never be the exact figures specified. Makes me partially glad they announced them openly.

Part of me was tempted to do some ridiculous math based around the probability of getting a cobalt drop for a Merc you actually want to use, with a set of usable augments. Instead I’m going to go and find some lunch. :pensive:

(MarsRover) #18

The chance of getting a 3-augment drop is 5% (Bronze + Silver + Gold + Cobalt). Soon we will have ~20 mercs. Every merc has 3 main weapons, and usually there’s one best loadout per weapon. So a chance of getting a good loadout for the merc you want and the best loadout for his weapon is:
5% * 1/20 mercs * 3/9 loadouts = roughly 0,08%
If you want a specific loadout it’s 0,027%

Cobalts only - add a few zeros :smile:

The chance is so small that I don’t even bother saving normal cases for when a new merc is released in hopes of getting a decent 3-augment loadout.

(Ghosthree3) #19

I’ve got one cobalt and 3 gold from normal cases I believe. A ton of silvers, like 10. I don’t buy elites or trade up.

(Halosheep) #20

I’ve found 1 cobalt and about 4-5 golds so far. A ton of silvers that I eventually used to trade up for golds, and then for my second cobalt. It really can feel like you’ll never get one when you’ve played the game for like 200 hours and haven’t even gotten a cobalt (I got my first one around 250 hours in). Good luck on your findings, OP.