Case Percentages

[Verticules]

The rng is the same per case opening 100 or 1000 it’s still 0.1% for a cobalt per case. The game doesn’t make up for the fact that you didn’t get a cobalt in ur first 999 cases, by giving you one on your 1000th. I just open them as I get them.

[eclipsedHouse]

The thing with sample sizes is that they need to be pretty large to be worth anything. If you flip a fair coin with a 50/50 heads or tails outcome 100,000 times, you might expect 50k heads, 50k tails, but the numbers would likely differ. The actual probability of getting exactly 50k heads and 50k tails (1 in 396 chance of this happening, if you’re curious) is weighed up against the probability of all other outcomes . Probabilities will just get closer to the averages as the sample size increases. The problem with this in the case of Dirty Bomb cases is that some of them have pretty small percent chances of dropping, meaning that whilst on average you might expect to see a Cobalt drop once in 1000 cases, but to test this you need a huge sample size.

This post inspired me to brush up on my statistics…dug up info on binomial distributions (assuming this is how you got the 1 in 396 chance).

So if you believe:

1. The advertised case percentages (80% chance of lead).
2. The data I’ve provided of what I’ve gotten from opening cases (200 cases opened with 172 successes )

The statistical chance of this happening (getting more than 171 lead cases out of 200) is 1.8%.

I’m hoping to see some regression to the mean in future openings.

[GiantGiant]

Hey, I have collected 82 cases so far. When I reach 100 I’ll open them and share the results with you. ;]

[eclipsedHouse]

Hey, I have collected 82 cases so far. When I reach 100 I’ll open them and share the results with you. ;]

I don’t have the patience to wait for 100 cases, so I open them 10 at a time and record what I get in a spreadsheet.

When you get that 100 though, please post your stats…I’m interested to see what percentages others get.

[refit]

With about 130 cases, I have never received a silver, gold, or cobalt. I have traded up to a perfect silver load out for my bushwhacker, so I don’t really care about cards any more.

[peacefulGrape]

I opened 33 elite cases, and recieved 0 cobalts. Then I opened 1 regular crate and got this http://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=507404174

I was like…da…faq…?

[Mister_Wiggles]

I’ve got 2 cobalts, at least 4 golds and a hand full of silvers and bronze. I’ve opened at least a couple hundred and most were free cases so the drop chance doesn’t really effect me.

[GiantGiant]

Ok, sorry for that delay, I forgot to post but finally I have collected 120 cases and oppened. Here are the results:
Leads - 90 - 75%
Irons - 26 - ~21,67%
Bronzes - 3 - 2,5%
Silvers - 0 - 0%
Golds - 1 - ~0,83% (http://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=515454604)
Cobalts - 0 - 0%

Assuming our results, we are pretty close to expectations. ;]
@eclipsedHouse
Seems I got more luck

[eclipsedHouse]

^ Thanks for posting result. That’s a nice bushwhacker loadout.

300 cases now opened:

1st 100: Lead - 86% / Iron - 11% / Bronze - 3% / Silver - 0% / Gold - 0% / Cobalt - 0%
2nd 100: Lead - 86% / Iron - 12% / Bronze - 1% / Silver - 1% / Gold - 0% / Cobalt - 0%
3rd 100: Lead - 74% / Iron - 19% / Bronze - 4% / Silver - 3% / Gold - 0% / Cobalt - 0%
Total 300: Lead - 82% / Iron - 14% / Bronze - 2.7% / Silver - 1.3% / Gold - 0% / Cobalt - 0%

Expected percentages are:
Lead - 80% / Iron - 15% / Bronze - 3% / Silver - 1.5% / Gold - .4% / Cobalt - .1%

Much better results on the last 100 cases…overall pretty close to expectations…hope to see a gold or cobalt soon.

[gg2ez]

If it costs 1000 credits to open up a normal case IMO, trading leads up to irons should be cheaper.

[brontesaur]

[quote=“eclipsedHouse;87578”]Much better results on the last 100 and some…overall pretty close to expectations…hope to see a gold or cobalt soon.

[/quote]

Before last week I haven’t landed a single gold since when I started playing in July, then all of a sudden I get 2 golds last week. So it’s all a bit hit and miss.

[DMaster2]

I also opened more than 100 cases and never got past bronze (2 of them in fact). And of course the two elite cases i opened gave me two silvers.

[neverplayseriou]

Around 190 hours in the game 2 golds (junk) and 1 cobalt (junk) from normal cases.

[MarsRover]

A few days ago I bought 50 cases, and got 4 silvers. That’s 8% instead of expected 1.5% Unfortunately all had bad loadouts or were for mercs I don’t care for.

[eclipsedHouse]

OK…I’ve reached the 1000 case mark…here’s what I got:

Lead - 822 / Iron - 124 / Bronze - 36/ Silver - 17 / Gold - 1/ Cobalt - 0

Expected percentages are:
Lead - 80% / Iron - 15% / Bronze - 3% / Silver - 1.5% / Gold - .4% / Cobalt - .1%

The results are somewhat close to advertised expected percentages…the kicker is the 1 gold and 0 cobalts in 1000 cases.

It’s brutal trading up…trading up to a gold requires 144 lead loadouts and 52,000 credits…trading up to one cobalt requires 864 lead and 322,000 game credits.

If you miss out on the golds and cobalts, even though the percentages are close, the value is way lower.

I still play and have fun.

[Mrarauzz]

I took me 604 hours of game time before I opened up my first cobalt…I wish they had a stat that tells you how many cases you opened because I want to know my pain in the form of a numerical expression.

Also it was the worst skyhammers card

[Shirobon]

I’ve opened way more than 200 cases, and I can say that I’ve gotten one silver, 4 bronzes, and the rest are lead/iron ones. Not once have I gotten a cobalt or gold.

[gloomyRequirement]

I’ve got exactly 1 cobalt from cases and I’ve opened well over 200. It was the absolute best one for Skyhammer but I fucking traded it in in my ignorance of wanting a cobalt Thunder(fuck me)

[RazielWarmonic]

Please do not “necro” old threads. Make new ones instead.

Closing this one.

Cheers.