What's the best way to get suspect cards? Cases, or boosters?

[ProfPlump]

[quote=“reciprocal;168096”]null
(1-(0.99)^(100))*100%=63% approximately[/quote]

That’s not how probability works, at all.
It’s 100*(0.01), to get the probability of total outcomes (that have a 1% chance of occurring) over 100 trials.

[MarsRover]

[quote=“ProfPlump;168107”][quote=“reciprocal;168096”]null
(1-(0.99)^(100))*100%=63% approximately[/quote]

That’s not how probability works, at all.
It’s 100*(0.01), to get the probability of total outcomes (that have a 1% chance of occurring) over 100 trials.[/quote]

Nope, I’m not going into that again Google “probability of repeated events” or something…

[ClemClem7]

In statistics, expected value (100*0.01) is different from probability to have at least 1 event (1-0.99^100)

[ProfPlump]

[quote=“MarsRover;168118”][quote=“ProfPlump;168107”][quote=“reciprocal;168096”]null
(1-(0.99)^(100))*100%=63% approximately[/quote]

That’s not how probability works, at all.
It’s 100*(0.01), to get the probability of total outcomes (that have a 1% chance of occurring) over 100 trials.[/quote]

Nope, I’m not going into that again Google “probability of repeated events” or something…[/quote]

I take it back - we’re both right, really. However, the way you presented yours was very unclear and misleading: “100 cases at 1% = 64% chance for a card.” You should have written, there is a 64% chance that you get 1 or more cards, not just one.

Basically, mine is just the expected amount of desired outcomes that are likely to occur - yours is a probability of at least 1 occurring. I only called your methods wrong because you presented your calculations in a misleading way.

[Saiph]

The probability is 63% for at least one and 37% for exactly one.

In both cases, you are wrong and this sentence doesn’t mean anything:

[quote=“ProfPlump;168272”]It’s 100*(0.01), to get the probability of total outcomes (that have a 1% chance of occurring) over 100 trials.[/quote]What did you calculate here ?

[Saiph]

[quote=“AlphaUT;167970”]You need to spend 12500 on booster to get MAX stacks, and after that it only means you will have the same drop rate as regular case. which also means you need to depend on RNG. ANDRNG in this game is BS. 12500 = 35 cases. Think about it before you buy booster.[/quote]Completely misleading statement. You say “It only means” , but the normal case rate is every 3-4 games. So basically that’s 12500 to get a card instantly without almost depending on RNG. And just buying 3-4 boosters should be enough to get decent chances.

Inversely, 1% to get a loadout for 350, IS not only insanely RNG dependent, but also terribly not cost-effective. You’d need 35,000 cycles to get ONE on average. 35,000 ??? that’s about one month grinding, playing many hours a day.

My advice would be to buy absolutely nothing at the moment and wait for updates in the next days. Don’t even buy the culprit case now, you can just wait until the event is almost finished. (unless the devs change it).

[ProfPlump]

[quote=“Saiph;168345”]The probability is 63% for at least one and 37% for exactly one.

In both cases, you are wrong and this sentence doesn’t mean anything:

It’s 100*(0.01), to get the probability of total outcomes (that have a 1% chance of occurring) over 100 trials.[/quote]What did you calculate here ?

Well, my interpretation of what you said was based off of someone else’s analysis of what you said. Clearly they were wrong.

But, what I’m calculating is the simplest form of probability out there. I might get the terminology wrong, but:
Probable total of desired outcomes* = Number of trials** x Chance of desired outcome***
T = 100 x 0.01
T = 1 desired outcome (opening a suspect loadout card)

• (ie, getting a suspect loadout card from the suspect case [not to be confused with the event case])
  ** (100, because we’re opening 100 suspect cases)
  *** (0.01, because the case says there is a 1% chance of getting a suspect loadout card from those cases).

That said, when I said “100k credits is about the same that it costs to get 100 suspect cases”, I was wrong… I don’t know why my head thought that was right, since with 100k credit’s worth of cycles, you can only buy around 31 suspect cases. However, since what I said, in terms of the probability calculations, was “if you open 100 suspect cases you’ll probably get 1 suspect loadout card”, then THAT was still correct.

[Scav]

I think i would stick with the cases, because while they probably wont drop the spec cards, they still give material for trading up, which is always nice. Boosters are just…boosters in themselves.

[Saiph]

[quote=“ProfPlump;168614”]Probable total of desired outcomes* = Number of trials** x Chance of desired outcome***
T = 100 x 0.01
T = 1 desired outcome (opening a suspect loadout card)

• (ie, getting a suspect loadout card from the suspect case [not to be confused with the event case])
  ** (100, because we’re opening 100 suspect cases)
  *** (0.01, because the case says there is a 1% chance of getting a suspect loadout card from those cases).
  [/quote]
  What you calculated should be called Average or Expectancy. That means, if you did a very large number of tries, you’ll get on average 1 case each time. But it is wrong to call it “the probable total” (or even worse, a probability). I’ve never heard that formulation

[ProfPlump]

[quote=“Saiph;168741”][quote=“ProfPlump;168614”]Probable total of desired outcomes* = Number of trials** x Chance of desired outcome***
T = 100 x 0.01
T = 1 desired outcome (opening a suspect loadout card)

• (ie, getting a suspect loadout card from the suspect case [not to be confused with the event case])
  ** (100, because we’re opening 100 suspect cases)
  *** (0.01, because the case says there is a 1% chance of getting a suspect loadout card from those cases).
  [/quote]
  What you calculated should be called Average or Expectancy. That means, if you did a very large number of tries, you’ll get on average 1 case each time. But it is wrong to call it “the probable total” (or even worse, a probability). I’ve never heard that formulation :D[/quote]

“Probable total of desired outcomes” is not, in any way, a misleading term. It’s exactly what it says on the tin. Sure, it’s a bit of a long term, but it works.

And, as I said, I don’t remember all the exact terminology we used in college.

[ProfPlump]

I think i would stick with the cases, because while they probably wont drop the spec cards, they still give material for trading up, which is always nice. Boosters are just…boosters in themselves.

Don’t know how, but I completely forgot about the fact that cases will give me tonnes of cards for trade ups as well!

[BananaSlug]

guys its 50% because you have 2 options: you get a case or you dont get a case ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)