The random factors of your game...

(FireWorks) #1

So I wanted to do some unboxing…

I bought 200 CW crates and had normal crates saved up from which I opened another 200.

My results:


                200 CW Crates:                   200 Normal Crates                   Total

Iron        37 = 18,5% (+3,5%)              41 = 20,5% (+5,5%)              78 = 19,5% (+4,5%)

Bronze       3 =    1,5% (-1,5%)             8 =   4%    (+1%)                 11 = 2,75% (-0,25%)

Silver       4 =    2%   (+0,5%)             5 =  2,5%  (+1%)                   9 = 2,25% (+0,75%)

Gold         0 =    0%   (-0,4%)             0 =    0%   (-0,4%)                 0 =    0%   (-0,4%) 

Special      0 =    0%   (-0,3%)             -        -           -                      -        -           -

Cobalt       0 =    0%   (-0,1%)             0 =    0%   (-0,1%)                  0 =    0%   (-0,1%)

Lead       156 =  78%    (-1,7%)            144 =  72%    (- 8%)                 -----------------------------

I got way more of Iron than expected and even 50% of Silver extra. Basically I got a lot less Lead than expected and instead got spammed with anything but the stuff Id hoped for :slight_smile:

Sorry that I cant to this sigma confidence interval and standard deviation things anymore but it still seems that the numbers are a bit off for a sample size of 400.

May I ask you for two things:

  1. Check if chances got screwed with the new patch.

  2. Think of dropping this model.

tl;dr

400crates and just trash. Feels bad.

edit: sorry for the design but making a perfect table is a bit of a pain :slight_smile:

(light_sh4v0r) #2

400 crates and no gold or higher :frowning:
That sucks

I’m only lvl 11 and from the crate drops I got I already got 3 golds…

(Mustang) #3

My experience is the same, never had a gold or above, I had the same rant on IRC last week.

(FireWorks) #4

I also burnt through my last 184 crates. With the other CW ones from the last days, its a total of over 600. No Gold or above.

I am level 46. I had a few golds in the past but not a single cobalt so far.

Maybe a variation of this… The longer you get no drop, the liklier it becomes:

http://dota2.gamepedia.com/Pseudo-random_distribution

(Mustang) #5

[QUOTE=FireWorks;540727]Maybe a variation of this… The longer you get no drop, the liklier it becomes:

http://dota2.gamepedia.com/Pseudo-random_distribution[/QUOTE]
I tried to suggest this before, but not sure anyone understood what I meant, nice link!

(BomBaKlaK) #6

[QUOTE=FireWorks;540727]I also burnt through my last 184 crates. With the other CW ones from the last days, its a total of over 600. No Gold or above.

I am level 46. I had a few golds in the past but not a single cobalt so far.

Maybe a variation of this… The longer you get no drop, the liklier it becomes:

http://dota2.gamepedia.com/Pseudo-random_distribution[/QUOTE]

Can be nice ! Not a single cobalt drop and maybe 1 gold (Level 43 so I open a lot of cases)

(poiuasd) #7

I spent ~80k on CW cases and got a cobalt and 2 silvers.
Afterwards I spent another ~150k and got nothing of value.

shrug

(Runeforce) #8

Sort of along the similar lines, since the patch I have created 40 bronze Stoker loadouts, hoping to get theT65, but no dice yet. All duplicates were even traded farther up. On the bright side, I got a nice and shiny collection of unwanted Stoker loadouts.

(DarkangelUK) #9

I mentioned this to them in IRC, I feel like the cards from crates after the CW patch have been consistently crap, I hope they now look into it instead of claiming I’m just ‘unlucky’ :wink: