[quote=“Runeforce;166129”]At default, the event case has a one percent chance to drop, instead of a regular equipment case, adding 10% for each booster. So your drop chances pr. booster to score an event case after each match is:
0 = 0.3%
1 = 3%
2 = 6%
3 = 9%
4 = 12%
5 = 15%
6 = 18%
7 = 21%
8 = 24%
9 = 27%
10 = 30%
Where’d you get the 0.3 base from? Also, 0.3 - 3 - 6 is not linear.
We do know they have a small chance to drop, and this would be consistent with previous events (but it might be something else with zero boosters.) We know the droprate of regular equipment cases is 30% pr. match, and we know 10 boosters will make that 30% chance a 100% event drop. It is linear, in the sense that one booster sets the value at 10%, the second at 20% increased event case drop chance, on the 30% match case drop chance. It’s consistent with both Exedores statement about linearity and Raziels statement (at the top of this thread) about that boosters are stacking, but not multiplying.
@Runeforce that sounds about right.
I’m on 3 boosters since the update hit, played a load of match (nonstop since the update hit)… No ball.
At ~9% chance, I must be -very- unlucky.
Well, I poked the devs about more info on this, and whether they could confirm my speculations, and they said they would get back about it (the guy who designed it is on vacation, but they assigned another guy to provide an answer,) but they have not yet.
And he’ll be back conveniently at the end of the event to answer all our questions.
[quote=“Matuno;166189”]@Runeforce that sounds about right.
I’m on 3 boosters since the update hit, played a load of match (nonstop since the update hit)… No ball.
At ~9% chance, I must be -very- unlucky.[/quote]
Same here buddy lol Am gonna go play some more now and see if my luck changes 
[quote=“Matuno;166189”]I’m on 3 boosters since the update hit, played a load of match (nonstop since the update hit)… No ball.
At ~9% chance, I must be -very- unlucky.[/quote]
I’m also interested in knowing how many boosters one needs to get for a chance of about 9%. If my math is correct, at 9% boosted chance and after 10 matches you earned a case with a 61% chance. After 20 matches, it’s 85%. After 30, it’s 94%. And after 100 matches you earned a case with a 99.99% chance.
The math: chance to earn a case = 100 * (1 - (1 - boosted chance / 100) ^ number of matches))
Turns out that they don’t really want to reveal the inner workings. Appereantly, it’s really complicated, and the boosters work on a ‘scaling over time rate’ (to me that sounds like a non-linear, exponential approach, but that’s just me, I have no idea really,) ‘like the system Valve uses’ (whatever that means.)
Basicly, I got a non-confirming answer on my theory being incorrect, (meaning it’s likely incorrect.)
[quote=“Runeforce;166247”]Turns out that they don’t really want to reveal the inner workings. Appereantly, it’s really complicated, and the boosters work on a ‘scaling over time rate’ (to me that sounds like a non-linear, exponential approach, but that’s just me, I have no idea really,) ‘like the system Valve uses’ (whatever that means.)
Basicly, I got a non-confirming answer on my theory being incorrect, (meaning it’s likely incorrect.)[/quote]
Source?
I have 10 Boosters, and played 25+ matches sinse yesterday, got 9 regular cases, and 0 suspect cases, its not the sam
@RazielWarmonic Can you fill me in on the 500 cycle cases? From what I can tell, they have a 100% chance to give a special edition card, but are only openable after the event. Can you confirm?
That’s some serious bullshit that we don’t know what we’re buying in terms of how much the boosters help or not…
[left][quote=“DexterGrif;166265”]@RazielWarmonic Can you fill me in on the 500 cycle cases? From what I can tell, they have a 100% chance to give a special edition card, but are only openable after the event. Can you confirm?[/quote]
This is pretty well explained:
The case is a single guaranteed drop for a unique skin for the culprit determined at the end of the event. You can only buy one.[/left]
I call bullshit. I swear im getting my fork and my torch now we need answers i played with 4 boosters the whole fucking afternoon and got nothing. There is something sketchy going on here. WE NEED ANSWERS. Stop being so secretive about some shit third grade math.
It’s only a single case, can only purchase one, and it will be of who ever the culprit will be. It’s going to be a unique card different from the event cards we’re getting now.
Bought two boosters fairly early… nothing quite yet, but I’ll be sure to report back if I get something.
3 boosters and about 9 hours of play since update hit and not a single suspect case. With the Devs hiding the math on the boosters I am getting a feeling they are just there for a placebo effect.
Im pretty sure the “same drop rate as regular cases” is BS, i have 10 boosters, been playing for almost 50 matches, i got 25+ regular cases, and still no suspect.
now I know conclusively they rigged the RNG on April 14th to give everyone a case, we are in week 5 now and my kid hasn’t played it for months, played first match in ages today and got a suspect case… why this makes it conclusive? well, the CASE WAS WEEK 3!!!
Soo not only did they rig it so everyone gets a case to shut them up but they didnt even code the cheat properly in case people don’t play that week… lazy lazy