So what's the best way to farm the event cards?

(MisterBadmin) #21

I might as well make this offer here, since a few people on Discord have taken me up on it, and I enjoy doing math.

If you want a wall of text regarding how many boosters you should have active to get the most out of your resources, give me one of the two below sets of information, preferably via Discord PM @ MisterBadmin#0158 (Profile picture will match). I’ll be around all day, but doing math does take time, so please be patient with me.

Credits willing to invest (to the nearest 100k) AND Average daily playtime (hours/day)

OR

Average daily playtime (hous/day) AND Target amount of cards

I can’t guarantee it will be accurate, due to the assumptions I have to make regarding case drops and because RNG is very easy to predict.

Sample wall:
You specified your goal as a 8 cards.
You specified you can play 4 hours a day, I assumed 15 days as a conservative estimate, with an average game length of 10 minutes (game mode is irrelevant, as I’m fairly sure the drop chance is doubled in SW, which negates the extra length). With this schedule, you’d be able to play 360 games.
Combining the two above conclusions means you would need to average a card every 45 games. Using some assumptions I don’t feel like writing out, I made a table of expected games to get a card at various booster levels. In this table, a booster level of 10% (base 1 plus 9 activated boosters) gives an expected games per card of 30, and a booster level of 5 gives 60. Linear interpolation gives 7.5% as your target. But I don’t like that. So I expanded my table at 7 and 8% as 1/ 16 and 1/12 (which is pretty close, and makes my math easier). These come out at 48 and 36 games/card, respectively.
At 7% (1% base, plus 6 active boosters), That would be 48 boosters over the course of the event, at a total cost of 14,400 Hexthingers. Not too bad, and this was with considerable conservative estimation.

(OwynTyler) #22

I just want those locked proxy cases for 500 =_= guess I’ll have to empty my whole 200k of credits on those

(ImSploosh) #23

This event is pretty bad. It’s basically a repeat of the Rev event except this time boosters apparently work, but now you need even more of them! It sucks to be honest. I wish we could just have a repeat over the Containment War event where you could purchase 1% cases for 1k each. It beats this for sure. I wasted 800k credits for only 26k hex (that’s a terrible conversion). It should have given me 800k hex considering you need 99 boosters for 100% (obviously half that will probably work, but even that’s still way too much).

Plus, if you spend real money, you still have a bunch of RNG involved. Just my opinion of course. I do like Turtle and the new map though so there’s that. Will always love DB, but these events are lacking in my opinion D:

(Sorotia) #24

@ImSploosh said:
Well Elite Cases only have a 10% chance which is still low. So far it appears like these cards may be too difficult to obtain. I could be wrong though. I’d rather have the 1000 credit equipment cases give a chance so I could spend my million credits to get some cards lol. I like how we can exchange our credits for hexads, but the conversion seems way too low for the chance of getting a card.

I feel like I’m missing something here.

It’s like they looked at ReV and said “Hey…how can we make this even rarer and a longer grind?”

(bgyoshi) #25

I did all the math over here guys

Let me know what I can correct to make the math more accurate

(Sintex7) #26

Roughly you can use 100k credits to getup to 10%, this will give you an Event Loadout in 15 to 30 games, Here is my Video on it.

(ThunderZsolt) #27

@n-x said:

@ThunderZsolt said:

@MisterBadmin said:

Considering that you have a 30% chance to get a case after each game, if you buy 10% drop chance, that is still only 3%/game. If you play 10 games, it equals 27% chance to get an event case - of yourse it goes up higher if you play more, but you might as well increase the chance further.

Isnt that the same error in reasoning people did during the ReV event? The percentage isnt culmulative. If you start with 3% and you dont get a drop, this doesnt increase your chance after the next game. You will have the same 3% after each game.

@TitaniumRapture said:

@ThunderZsolt said:

@MisterBadmin said:
Save your Credits as well. Buy Hexthingers with them if you can, and use those to feed your booster train.

Considering that you have a 30% chance to get a case after each game, if you buy 10% drop chance, that is still only 3%/game. If you play 10 games, it equals 27% chance to get an event case - of yourse it goes up higher if you play more, but you might as well increase the chance further.
For example if you increase your chance to 15%, (4,5% after each game) if you have time for 10 games, your chance increases to get one case from 27% to 47% - double chance for 1,5x investment.

I’m not an expert in calculating probabilities (only learned as much as I had to on the university) so I can’t calculate the optimal chance to buy, but I suggest to always buy more drop chance as soon as you can. I think you will get a case before reaching 20%, which still takes a while.
For this reason, if the end of the event is getting close, coloured cases will become a better deal, because you won’t have the time to get the drops, even if you have like 10% chance after each game (and that is if you have 33% chance)

The point of boosters is to increase chance you get event case instead of regular equipment case. I would say that probability of dropping a case after match is same after every match. There is not anything like limited number of games with guaranteed drop so your probability would increase with increasing number of games played.

To give you a relatively simple example, let’s say you want to roll a 6 with a die. You have 1/6 chance to roll a 6 each time. Still, rolling more times gives you more chance than rolling only once.

No, the chance is not increasing after each game, and the outcome of previous rolls don’t influence the current roll. These are called “independent events” in probability theory.

Let’s call the probability of getting an event case “P”. Then the probability of getting a regular case is
1-P.
If you roll 10 times, than the probability of not getting one successful roll is
1-(1-P)^10.
If you roll 20 times, then it is
1-(1-P)^20.
The successful roll might not happen, might happen at the first try, or any other. The model is not accurate, because it doesn’t count the probability of getting 2 or more event cases in 10 games, and other stuff, but good enough to decide that getting boosters is better than proxy cases, because that way you can have infinite rolls (after each game) not only one roll (opening the case)

If the proxy cases had like 5% chance to drop an event card, then it would be a completely different story.

I suggest to look up at least the basics of probability theory on the internet, it is not only interesting, but also helps making you decisions (not just like this, but for example how early should I leave if I want to arrive in time with 95% chance)

(Your worst knifemare.) #28

Pray

(TheOmniscient) #29

I have the best method, spend $350 USD on Elite case packs and get 3 duplicate event cards out of 32 total B)

![alt text] (https://steamuserimages-a.akamaihd.net/ugc/853846905690006801/F6044AEECB96B3A000EA56A13491BA39B081E517/)

alt text
3094255A0008A3828FA2233F2698B7B78E472D261920x1080

![alt text] (https://steamuserimages-a.akamaihd.net/ugc/853846905690007290/DE0E70060E1A14829F9EE6261BB7B447A6E824BE/)

Randomly got this dropped after making this:
![alt text] (https://steamuserimages-a.akamaihd.net/ugc/853846905693113321/D002A878F2928DEF13B6AFD23FC41A40F76E2492/)

Totally isn’t a humble brag… :stuck_out_tongue:

(GatoCommodore) #30

@TheOmniscient

if only $350 is a chump change i would have bought it.

(TheOmniscient) #31

watched kandyrew buy 2 packs and get an MK46 Thunder, which is all I wanted TvT

(XsnipergirlX) #32

@TheOmniscient said:
watched kandyrew buy 2 packs and get an MK46 Thunder, which is all I wanted TvT

He got the MK95 o.o

Also I feel bad he got Duplicate Shell Shock card :frowning: his Redeye D51 lol…

(Faraleth) #33

@Fr0stPh03niX said:
I had bought 11 Hexad equipment cases (along with the Hexad trinket) and only got 1 frigging Nader event loadout card out of them.

That’s actually pretty good you even managed to get 1 from 11, considering they are a 1% drop-chance . Looks like the best way to secure event card drops is by buying the boosters, unless you REALLY want to test your RNG.

RNG hates me though, so I’m gonna stick to boosters. I could probably open 1000 of those 1% chance cases and never get one, knowing my luck. :wink:

(bgyoshi) #34

@Faraleth said:

@Fr0stPh03niX said:
I had bought 11 Hexad equipment cases (along with the Hexad trinket) and only got 1 frigging Nader event loadout card out of them.

That’s actually pretty good you even managed to get 1 from 11, considering they are a 1% drop-chance . Looks like the best way to secure event card drops is by buying the boosters, unless you REALLY want to test your RNG.

Probability math says you’ll only need to get to 9 or 10 or so before you’re bound to find one.