So, I Just Spent $20 on Dirty Bomb

(Jostabeere) #41

Mathematically you don’t get heads “MORE LIKELY”. Math hasn’t a more likely option.

(Szakalot) #42

Mathematically you don’t get heads “MORE LIKELY”. Math hasn’t a more likely option.
[/quote]

it absolutely does. 50% is less likely than 75% Where is the problem?

If you throw a coin twice you actually have 4 options:

  • first head, second head
  • first head, second tail
  • first tail, second head
  • first tail, second tail.

All of these events are equally likely to happen, at 25% each. Even though the coin has only two sides, we are now considering ‘quarter’ possibilities.

(PogS) #43

I also 100% agree with the OP. I want to spend money on new merc models with fancy skins not for a chance to get a ‘no better looking’ alternate skin for a merc. Check on games like Smite that have a quite similar economic model but they offer nice models, voices ,etc… for your money.

(FireWorks) #44

The trolling in this thread is just lovely.[quote=“laudatoryLunch;88209”][quote=“Szakalot;88207”]more likely to get heads AT LEAST ONCE if you keep throwing the coin?[/quote]
Mathematically you don’t get heads “MORE LIKELY”. Math hasn’t a more likely option.
[/quote]

Please go back to your class…

Come back when you can read and understand full sentences. Then you might have a chance to understand things discussed in this thread.

If you insist on ignoring what is written here, you might also want to go back to your math class.

Now lets try this again together:
You toss a coin 1x, one time, once. Clear so far? You have a 50% chance of heads or tails ONCE. A 50% chance of getting tails as result with count of exactly ONE. 1xTails.

As a table of possible results. I assume you can interprete this:
1: H
2: T

Now the special part where you failed so far in understanding and reading comprehension:

We toss 2x, two times, twice.

Now the questions: READ CLOSELY PLEASE:
A.) What is the probability to have EXACTLY 1xTails?
B.) What is the probability to have A MINIMUM of 1xTails, 1x or more? (What Szakalot asked you)

Table of outcomes:
1: H H
2: H T
3: T H
4: T T

So, if we look at the table. How many of these cases fit the first question A of exactly 1x Tails?
Its case 2 and 3. 2 out of 4 cases => 50%

Now for question B. A minimum of 1xTailes. Minimum, so 1 or 2 (or more…). Looking at the table case 2, 3 and 4 fulfill this condition. That 3 out of 4 cases, which means 75%.
There is a 75% chance to at least toss one Tails if you toss a coin twice.

I believe you can extrapolate from here on.

Maybe your next answer is also more than a line long. It would make it look less trolling.

PS:
Math has a “more likely” option, it is called “higher probability”. If P1 >P2 it is more likely.
Also Percentages do add up depending on what you are calculating.

(Backuplight) #45

I really want something in game to drop some cash on. As it stands, there just isn’t anything. The expert and elite cases aren’t even a little bit appealing, and that’s coming from someone who loves RNG boxes. Even if I scored a cobalt with the perfect weapons and augments and it was for a merc I love, it just doesn’t appeal. There needs to be some separation of skinning items from the RNG of getting the right gear for your favourite merc.

(Jostabeere) #46

Buy silvers then and trade them up.

@FireWorks No YOU just don’t get it. 10 cases AREN’T ONE COIN you flip 10 times. 10 cases are 10 coins you flip individually. And every coin has 50%. Period. You flip one coin, get either heads or tails. End. You take the next one, flip it, get heads or tails. End. You don’t add them, you don’t count the percentage of all rolls or anything.

(FireWorks) #47

Buy silvers then and trade them up.

@FireWorks No YOU just don’t get it. 10 cases AREN’T ONE COIN you flip 10 times. 10 cases are 10 coins you flip individually. And every coin has 50%. Period. You flip one coin, get either heads or tails. End. You take the next one, flip it, get heads or tails. End. You don’t add them, you don’t count the percentage of all rolls or anything.[/quote]

Again you counter arguments with “no, is wrong”. Clever…

You know statistics dont end there? There is a whole science branch doing further analysis. Its just lovely how you keep up the stubborn attitude and defend your lost cause. Breaking news: The world is not flat.

Noone denies that each toss is individual. WE wrote that each time when we tried to explain it to you. But the topic goes deeper and has more things to offer. More questions and things to be calculated. Your answer of 50% is not working for all questions formulated in this thread.

(ShotgunRagtime) #48

@everyone

I feel like I really blew the entire thread off of the rails with my probability comments. @FireWorks pretty much just stated what I was attempting to say, only in grown-up terms instead of my kindergarten-level explanation. So I feel like it’s probably best to stop this digression whilst I go and edumacate myself.

In any event –

I feel like the current system is meant more for whales (and I don’t mean that in a derogatory way, just using the generic term) who are willing to spend hundreds if not thousands on cases. I guess Nexon saw the success of online TCG’s and packs and decided to emulate it?

Reasonably-priced gear – a $5 hat, for instance, that could be put on a merc of your choice and would adopt the camo of the current card you’re using – would be very economical and I’d probably purchase several such items.

(Jostabeere) #49

[quote=“FireWorks;88324”]
Again you counter arguments with “no, is wrong”. Clever…

You know statistics dont end there? There is a whole science branch doing further analysis. Its just lovely how you keep up the stubborn attitude and defend your lost cause. Breaking news: The world is not flat.

Noone denies that each toss is individual. WE wrote that each time when we tried to explain it to you. But the topic goes deeper and has more things to offer. More questions and things to be calculated. Your answer of 50% is not working for all questions formulated in this thread.[/quote]

You denied it 1 or 2 times. I don’t need to explain why your argument is wrong because it is mathematically wrong. The question was about the probability of getting cobalts. The probability is listed on the site and NEVER increases no matter how much cases you buy.

(Kouken) #50

Ive spent a few hundred on DB overall mainly because I want to support the Devs as much as possible even though I complain constantly about the state of the RNG microtransactions

I would spent so much more if it meant I could buy the exact loadout I wanted with the skin I wanted (ie, fragment over shard)

(srswizard) #51

So, who had the biggest epeen in the end?

(FireWorks) #52

[quote=“laudatoryLunch;88498”][quote=“FireWorks;88324”]
Again you counter arguments with “no, is wrong”. Clever…

You know statistics dont end there? There is a whole science branch doing further analysis. Its just lovely how you keep up the stubborn attitude and defend your lost cause. Breaking news: The world is not flat.

Noone denies that each toss is individual. WE wrote that each time when we tried to explain it to you. But the topic goes deeper and has more things to offer. More questions and things to be calculated. Your answer of 50% is not working for all questions formulated in this thread.[/quote]

You denied it 1 or 2 times. I don’t need to explain why your argument is wrong because it is mathematically wrong. The question was about the probability of getting cobalts. The probability is listed on the site and NEVER increases no matter how much cases you buy.[/quote]

Proof? Source?

Sorry wont feed you more.

(MarsRover) #53

Well, in contrast to The Great Lobby War of 2015, here we have all the data and all the math to conclude that one side doesn’t understand statistics :tongue:

(Jostabeere) #54

[quote=“FireWorks;88530”]

Proof? Source?

Sorry wont feed you more.[/quote]

Do you read your own posts?

(FireWorks) #55

I guess Ill regret it but once more…

[quote=“laudatoryLunch;88498”]

You denied it 1 or 2 times. I don’t need to explain why your argument is wrong because it is mathematically wrong. The question was about the probability of getting cobalts. The probability is listed on the site and NEVER increases no matter how much cases you buy.[/quote]

The probability of 1 case doesnt change. We all know that and we never questioned that. But also noone cares for it… The question is different (as already posted multiple times):

I ask you now: Please, tell us how many good (cobalt3%+gold7%) cards can you stochastically expect when opening 11 cases?

(riptide) #56

[quote=“laudatoryLunch;88498”][quote=“FireWorks;88324”]
Again you counter arguments with “no, is wrong”. Clever…

You know statistics dont end there? There is a whole science branch doing further analysis. Its just lovely how you keep up the stubborn attitude and defend your lost cause. Breaking news: The world is not flat.

Noone denies that each toss is individual. WE wrote that each time when we tried to explain it to you. But the topic goes deeper and has more things to offer. More questions and things to be calculated. Your answer of 50% is not working for all questions formulated in this thread.[/quote]

You denied it 1 or 2 times. I don’t need to explain why your argument is wrong because it is mathematically wrong. The question was about the probability of getting cobalts. The probability is listed on the site and NEVER increases no matter how much cases you buy.[/quote]

I’m sorry but I don’t think you have a firm understanding of probabilities. Just because you have a 50% chance of flipping H or T on a coin, does not mean all questions involving said coin has a 50% chance to occur.

If you flip a coin 3 times you have a 87.5% chance of getting heads at least once. Not 50% as you seem to think.

It is not as simple ;
flip 1 heads or tails
flip 2 heads or tails
flip 3 heads or tails.

You need to factor all likely outcomes of flipping said coin 3 times. This is what you are forgetting or do not understand.

If you flip a coin 3x these are the possible results.
HHH
HHT
HTH
HTT
THH
TTH
THT
TTT

That’s 8 equally likely possibilities. So we have a denominator of 8
How many of those possibilities contain at least 1 head? 7 which is our numerator.
That’s 7 out of 8 possible outcomes that have at least 1 head. Which is 87.5% of all equally likely outcomes.

What you are essentially trying to argue is that if you flip a coin 3x you have a 50% chance of getting T, T, T or any other specific possible outcome. Do you realize how ridiculous that sounds? Good, because it is.

P.S. If you EVER want to bet on coin flips over X amount of flips, feel free to look me up or shoot me a PM asap.

(Jostabeere) #57

[quote=“riptide;88546”][quote=“laudatoryLunch;88498”][quote=“FireWorks;88324”]
Again you counter arguments with “no, is wrong”. Clever…

You know statistics dont end there? There is a whole science branch doing further analysis. Its just lovely how you keep up the stubborn attitude and defend your lost cause. Breaking news: The world is not flat.

Noone denies that each toss is individual. WE wrote that each time when we tried to explain it to you. But the topic goes deeper and has more things to offer. More questions and things to be calculated. Your answer of 50% is not working for all questions formulated in this thread.[/quote]

You denied it 1 or 2 times. I don’t need to explain why your argument is wrong because it is mathematically wrong. The question was about the probability of getting cobalts. The probability is listed on the site and NEVER increases no matter how much cases you buy.[/quote]

I’m sorry but I don’t think you have a firm understanding of probabilities. Just because you have a 50% chance of flipping H or T on a coin, does not mean all questions involving said coin has a 50% chance to occur.

If you flip a coin 3 times you have a 87.5% chance of getting heads at least once. Not 50% as you seem to think.

It is not as simple ;
flip 1 heads or tails
flip 2 heads or tails
flip 3 heads or tails.

You need to factor all likely outcomes of flipping said coin 3 times. This is what you are forgetting or do not understand.

If you flip a coin 3x these are the possible results.
HHH
HHT
HTH
HTT
THH
TTH
THT
TTT

That’s 8 equally likely possibilities. So we have a denominator of 8
How many of those possibilities contain at least 1 head? 7 which is our numerator.
That’s 7 out of 8 possible outcomes that have at least 1 head. Which is 87.5% of all equally likely outcomes.

What you are essentially trying to argue is that if you flip a coin 3x you have a 50% chance of getting T, T, T or any other specific possible outcome. Do you realize how ridiculous that sounds? Good, because it is.

P.S. If you EVER want to bet on coin flips over X amount of flips, feel free to look me up or shoot me a PM asap. [/quote]

If you flip 3 coins 1 time each insdividually, how high is the percentage of getting heads on 1 coin twice? People think 10 cases are 1 coin flipped 10 times, which is wrong. It is 10 coins flipped 1 time individually. Therefor the chance of 50% remains for every coin.

(riptide) #58

[quote=“laudatoryLunch;88551”]
If you flip 3 coins 1 time each insdividually, how high is the percentage of getting heads on 1 coin twice? People think 10 cases are 1 coin flipped 10 times, which is wrong. It is 10 coins flipped 1 time individually. Therefor the chance of 50% remains for every coin.[/quote]

Three coins flipped one time each has the exact same equally likely possibilities as one coin flipped three times. Is this English or Math?

To answer the bolded question, which is poorly worded. It is 0, because you can’t get 2 heads with a single flip.

If what you meant to ask was “How likely am I to flip at least 2 heads when flipping 3 coins 1 time each.” I would say I already answered this question above. There are 4 equally likely possible outcomes which contain at least 2 heads in the series. So it’s 4/8 or 1/2 which is 50%. If you wanted to know the probability of getting exactly 2 heads and 1 tail in any order it is 3/8 or 37.5%

(FireWorks) #59

and now please calculate the chance of having Heads once out of your 10 coin flips.

(Szakalot) #60

once or ‘at least once’, cause that is some ‘advanced math’ based on the level of the discussion here ; D