200+ cases and the best thing i got is ~6 bronzes. I’m displeased to say the least.
Somebody correct me if I’m wrong but odds of not getting a silver or a special edition after 200 cases are 0.028%. How did i manage that.
Show off your new Ghostclip skins
Guziol
(Guziol)
#81
MisterBadmin
(MisterBadmin)
#82
@Guziol said:
200+ cases and the best thing i got is ~6 bronzes. I’m displeased to say the least.
Somebody correct me if I’m wrong but odds of not getting a silver or a special edition after 200 cases are 0.028%. How did i manage that.
I will correct you on that, because probability and statistics is my jam. Math explanation in the spoiler if you want it. Results below because I’m mathing this as I’m typing.
[Spoiler]
The Probability of getting a Silver or better [represented as P(Silver+) from hereon] from a single case is the summation of the probabilities of getting a Silver, Gold, Cobalt and Special Edition. Mathematically:
P(Silver+)=P(Silver)+P(Gold)+P(Cobalt)+P(Special Edition)
Sub in given probabilities in decimal form (2% is 0.02):
P(Silver+)=0.02+0.005+0.001+0.02=0.046 or 4.6%
Which means the probability of getting less than a silver is:
P(not Silver+)=1-P(Silver+)=1-0.046=0.954 or 95.4%
For a binomial (2 options, in this case Silver+ and not Silver+) distribution, the probability of an event happening n times is P(n events)=P(event)^n. In this case, n is 200 and the event is getting less than a Silver (not Silver+, as previously written.
P(200 no Silver+)=P(not Silver+)^200= 0.954^200=0.00001507 (truncated) or 0.001507%
Which means the probability of getting at least 1 Silver+ card is:
P(at least 1 Silver+)=1-P(200 no Silver+)=1-0.00001507=0.99998403 or 99.998403%
Take 1/P(200 no Silver+) to determine a 1:number ratio, which gives a more understandable number.
1/0.00001507=66,357 (truncated)
Let me put this into context. The 2010 Population of Union City, New Jersey was 66,455. Union City, New Jersey was the 529th most populous city in the United States at that time. If all those people were to open 200 cases, one would expect only 1 of them to be as unlucky as you.
If you read everything, go get a cookie. You deserve it.
[/spoiler]
Actual probability is around 0.0015% or 1 in about 66,000.
You managed it by rolling a lot of dice very poorly. RNG is a lovely design choice.
Guziol
(Guziol)
#83
Nice. For the sake of the argument i only counted silvers and ghostclip loadouts, both are 2% so i counted 96% to not get said outcomes. Is 0.96 to the power of 200 correct in that case? I’m not arguing with your math, only curious if my idea was correct if i assumed only Silver/ghostclip vs anything else.
MisterBadmin
(MisterBadmin)
#85
@Guziol said:
Nice. For the sake of the argument i only counted silvers and ghostclip loadouts, both are 2% so i counted 96% to not get said outcomes. Is 0.96 to the power of 200 correct in that case? I’m not arguing with your math, only curious if my idea was correct if i assumed only Silver/ghostclip vs anything else.
Correct. 0.96^200 is 0.00028 or 0.028%.
This is why I included the methodology. With given tiers, I prefer assuming anything of an equal or higher tier to the goal when considering everything.
Guziol
(Guziol)
#86
Finally a silver. That i already own in silver with preffered skin. 5 cases later a ghostclip loadout. That i already own in cobalt. It’s at least a loadout i like. M4 skyhammer with unshakable and turbo ammo.
Bestfinlandball
(Bestfinlandball)
#87
@Guziol said:
Finally a silver. That i already own in silver with preffered skin. 5 cases later a ghostclip loadout. That i already own in cobalt. It’s at least a loadout i like. M4 skyhammer with unshakable and turbo ammo.
When i finally got a ghostclip card from an equipment case, it was the 143 sparks which i already had in ranked 3, silver, and cobalt. I feel ya
anon41468043
#89
I lied. (: Got another from case drops at the end of the match.
I guess the game knew how bad I felt for not buying Stoker’s T52 undead skin recently.
GatoCommodore
(GatoCommodore)
#92
I STILL HAVENT GET A SINGLE GHOSTCLIP LOADOUT REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
BazBling
(BazBling)
#95
@GatoCommodore said:
I STILL HAVENT GET A SINGLE GHOSTCLIP LOADOUT REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Maybe you should try playing for drops and spending credits on cases dude, you spend wayyy too much time in here 
GatoCommodore
(GatoCommodore)
#96
@BazBling said:
@GatoCommodore said:
I STILL HAVENT GET A SINGLE GHOSTCLIP LOADOUT REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEMaybe you should try playing for drops and spending credits on cases dude, you spend wayyy too much time in here
i use laptop for posting in here while playing DB on my tower PC
AlbinMatt
(AlbinMatt)
#97
I don’t always have time to play, but when I do
I’m an utter scrub that his gets pub stonped.
Seriously, how much time do adults actually have?
anon41468043
#98
Opened up all my cases from matches this past day (I haven’t spent another dime or credit as I said above) and I’ve gotten 3 more. A trash Thunder, H23 Proxy, and this…
Which would be lovely and at this point I’m not only shocked at my luck from regular cases, but infuriated at the odds of this happening once again for the millionth ******* time:
I can’t ******* stand this. I’m tempted to email them and be like, listen y’all, considering the amount of time and money I’ve invested in your game, this is unacceptable and would take one simple line of code to ensure we don’t get duplicates from special edition events and ranked seasons. It’s one thing when it’s just rng from a random case like this happened to be, but another when I’ve spent money for an item I’ve already received. Please refund me with an additional guaranteed case for the ones I purchased. Do the right thing.
Yeah, I’d probably have a snowball’s chance in Hell at that one working out. **** this. I have so many duplicates all over the place. Can’t even trash, hide, or recycle them. I have to sit there and look at them in my inventory every day.
CryonicArrow
(CryonicArrow)
#99
I got 3 three more now if I can just get a Amiee and a aura I’ll be happy.
https://steamuserimages-a.akamaihd.net/ugc/895511849406667238/B367BA74F402EA837F2FBB38580709FE946CF7B4/
Sorotia
(Sorotia)
#100
@GatoCommodore said:
I STILL HAVENT GET A SINGLE GHOSTCLIP LOADOUT REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Yeah…at this point I wonder if should just stop buying cases and save up for the next merc.