Be sure to read through the entire thread. I there is a lot of useful information. For those less inclined I will copy paste the good stuff.
http://forums.dirtybomb.nexon.net/discussion/comment/34098/#Comment_34098
I have tried to do this math before, but without knowledge of the variables(in this scenario case opening results) you will find it had to make a prediction of value. Best way to do this is to actually get a sample size based on a # of cases to calculate value rather than assign a blanket value based on the minimum you might pay.
These variables were released to us but I never went back to look at the math again until now.
Let us pretend that the odds are PERFECT and you open 1,000 cases. This cost you 1,000,000 credits.
There are 6 different levels of rarity. Divide 1,000,000 by 6 to get 166,667 value per tier. Then divide that number by the number of cards received for that rarity to determine how much each card is worth.
You received:
1 Cobalt = 166,667 Credits
4 Gold = 41,667 Credits Each
15 Silver = 11,111 Credits Each
30 Bronze = 5,556 Credits Each
150 Iron = 1,111 Credits Each
800 Lead = 208 Credits Each
Not sure who you are asking, but I will use the same math I used above.
Pretending you buy 100 Elite Cases at $350
Three possible tiers of rarity. $116.67 value per tier.
5 Cobalt = $23.33 Each
15 Gold = $7.78 Each
80 Silver = $1.46 Each
Pretending you buy 100 Elite Cases at $500(DON’T DO THIS!!!)
166.67 value per tier.
5 Cobalt = $33.34
15 Gold = $11.11
80 Silver = $2.08
If we combine this information with the supposed credit values from above we can determine a relative value.
1 Cobalt = 166,667 Credits
4 Gold = 41,667 Credits Each
15 Silver = 11,111 Credits Each
30 Bronze = 5,556 Credits Each
150 Iron = 1,111 Credits Each
800 Lead = 208 Credits Each
Based on Nexon’s math 5,000 credits = $1
Cobalt = $23.33 = 116,650 credits
Cobalt = $33.34 = 166,700 credits
Gold = $7.78 = 38,900 credits
Gold = $11.11= 55,550 credits
Silver = $1.46 = 7,300 credits
Silver = $2.08 = 10,400 credits
Shockingly the value based on the $5 cases is quite close to the credit value I determined them to have based on 1,000 normal cases.
P.S. 1,000,000 credits = $200. This means $350 of Elite Cases, in a perfect world, should generate 1,750,000 credits worth of loadouts.
This final set of numbers I based on buying cases for 1,000 credits each and ONLY receiving lead cards.
Now, the cost of a single Cobalt card…
To figure that out, we must figure out the price for each lower tiered card, which is as follows.
Iron = 3,500 credits
Iron = 3Lead +500 combine costs.
We assume Leads are worth 1k due to cases costing that much.
Bronze = 11,500 credits
Bronze = 3 Iron + 1k combine cost
Silver = 48,000 credits
Silver = 4 bronze + 2k combine cost
Gold = 196,000 credits
Gold = 4 silver +4k combine cost
Cobalt = 1,186,000 credits
Cobalt = 6 gold + 10k combine cost
You are spending 1.2 million credits for an opportunity of a choice card.