As far as I know, equipment cases are dropped at a 2% chance per minute of play, resetting after every match.
! So that averages to one case every 50 minutes of play. Every 50 minutes, you have a 1% chance to get a special load out case, so every 5,000 minutes you should get at least 1 special loadout… or 83.33 hours of play at most if you never buy boosters or cases. I earn about 30 - 45 credits every Stopwatch match, I’m guessing they average about 23 minutes each with the fastest games being 16 minutes (8 minute completion + 8 minutes failure for the fastest) to a full 30 minute max.
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! 300 credits/45 credits = 6.66 matches * 23 minutes = 153.33 minutes = 2.5 hours per booster
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! 153.33 minutes/50 minutes = 3.066 cases per booster increase
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! So the odds of getting a special loadout case in 153 minutes is .01 * 3.066 or .03066*100=3.066 % chance
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! After one booster, it’s .02 * 3.066 = 6.132% (second 3 cases) + 3.066% (first 3 cases) = 9.198% chance in 306.66 minutes
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! 3 boosters = .09198 + .06132 + .03066 = 18.576% chance in 459.99 minutes
! 4 boosters = .12264 + .18576 = 30.84% chance in 613.32 minutes
! 5 boosters = .1533 + .3084 = 46.17%
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! That means there is a 110% chance to get one special loadout case every 8 boosters, or 85% chance every 7 boosters. So a maximum of 8 boosters + minimum of 1 booster = 23.04 hours / 2 = one special loadout case every 12.8 hours on average, buying boosters.
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! If instead you buy cases, you get about 1 extra case every 153.33 minutes. That means you’ll earn roughly 1 extra case every 3 cases you randomly get, so it’ll take 75 random cases to get 100 total cases. 75 cases *.83 hours per case = 63.33 hours. A minimum of .83 hours + maximum of 63.33 hours has an average of 33.335 hours per special loadout case.
! Here’s the google doc with the math if anyone is interested https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mhi6rk-RL6Ue7zbiA_R1y-iv__zZwJLYP-ZSg0hRHsk/edit?usp=sharing
TL;DR If you buy boosters you can expect 1 special loadout every 13 hours or so. If you buy cases you can expect 1 special loadout every 33 hours or so. And that’s in actual game playing hours, not online hours. It all depends on how fast you earn credits and how fast you get random case drops. I could be entirely wrong on how often equipment cases drop so take my words with a grain of salt.