Can we get the REAL unbox chances in Arsenal Crates?

(frostyvampire) #1

Edit: I got it, my luck sucks and I will keep getting 1 hour boosters while others get elite cases.
You can lock the thread now

It says that the chances are currently

1h Credit Booster: 23.0%
Expert Case A, B or C: 21.0%
5x Equipment Cases : 17.5%
3h Credit Booster: 11.5%
10x Equipment Cases: 9.0%
Elite Case A or B: 7.0%
6h Credit Booster: 6.0%
12h Credit Booster: 3.0%
18h Credit Booster: 2.0%

Which means (on average) you will get a 1 hour booster about once every 4 crates you open and that you have a bigger chance of getting something that isn’t a one hour booster, but it doesn’t actually happen this way and most people get 1h booster pretty much in half or more of their crates.
I personally opened a total of ~15 crates and out of all I got 8x 1 hour boosters when I should’ve gotten only 3 or 4.
Either the crates are broken and need to be fixed, OR if you could provide us with the actual drop rates it would be great.
Clearly the chances to get a 1h booster are WAY more than 23%

(doxjq) #2

No it doesn’t. You’re doing the math wrong.

It’s percentage per crate, not percentage per total crates, so the amount of crates you’ve opened is irrelevant.

(Ardez1) #3

No it doesn’t. You’re doing the math wrong.

It’s percentage per crate, not percentage per total crates, so the amount of crates you’ve opened is irrelevant. [/quote]

Exactly. The odds are every time you open a crate the most likely individual result is a 1 hour booster. The game doesn’t care what your previous results were.

(doxjq) #4

Although I do like the way he thinks. If it did work the way he implied, it would mean Dirty Bomb probably owes me approximately 20 cobalt cards based on the apparent odds of getting a cobalt. If you could get onto that ASAP I’d really appreciate it @Ardez haha :wink:

(dlux) #5

I’ve had about 10-15 Arsenal crates, and only one of them gave a 1h booster.
So yeah, I have the opposite experience and am quite happy with these crates.

(frostyvampire) #6

@Ardez
Well there is only 23% chance to get a 1 hour booster, it means most of the time you will be getting something else (77% chance to get a better thing), unlike cases which have an 80% chance to get leads which is most of the time what you get.
According to the chances I should be getting something that isn’t an 1 hour booster more often, just like I get leads in almost every case I open

@Dox
*she
I know it, but that’s the average of what you should be getting, if there is a 5% chance to get a cobalt, on average you will be getting one cobalt every 20 cases. Of course there are people like me who get 20 silvers but there are also people that get 2 cobalts in 5 cases. But the average SHOULD be 1 cobalt every 20 cases.
And now I just sound like an idiot RIP me

@Delukz
Lucky you then, you should fill the lotto

(PD_Agent47) #7

To speak frankly I have opened nearly 23 arsenal crates and I have got only 4 1hr boosters :smile:

(B_Montiel) #8

[quote=“FrostyVampire;192369”]@Ardez
Well there is only 23% chance to get a 1 hour booster, it means most of the time you will be getting something else (77% chance to get a better thing), unlike cases which have an 80% chance to get leads which is most of the time what you get.
According to the chances I should be getting something that isn’t an 1 hour booster more often, just like I get leads in almost every case I open
[/quote]

Don’t forget that a 15 arsenal crate sample is too small to be representative. Over 50/100 crates, you’d certainly discover a trend that will replicate the real odds. So I’d say that you’ve been quite unlucky and you’ll probably have better crates in the future.

(Mister__Wiggles) #9

I got 2 elite cases, one expert, 2 18 hours boosters and some normal cases. I think the Arsenal crates should stay as rare drops not just for leveling up.

(frostyvampire) #10

@Mister__Wiggles
As far as I know they plan on making it a rare drop in ranked games

(Sorotia) #11

[quote=“Delukz;192348”]I’ve had about 10-15 Arsenal crates, and only one of them gave a 1h booster.
So yeah, I have the opposite experience and am quite happy with these crates.[/quote]

I’ve only opened a few but yeah, I’ve yet to get a 1h booster.

(Sithas) #12

[quote=“Delukz;192348”]I’ve had about 10-15 Arsenal crates, and only one of them gave a 1h booster.
So yeah, I have the opposite experience and am quite happy with these crates.[/quote]

Sigh this is why i dont like it that they removed the ‘dislike’ button, come on nexon atleast give me the ‘salt’ button for post like these :wink:

(doxjq) #13

[quote=“FrostyVampire;192369”]
@Dox
*she[/quote]

My apologies.

[quote=“FrostyVampire;192369”]I know it, but that’s the average of what you should be getting, if there is a 5% chance to get a cobalt, on average you will be getting one cobalt every 20 cases. Of course there are people like me who get 20 silvers but there are also people that get 2 cobalts in 5 cases. But the average SHOULD be 1 cobalt every 20 cases.
And now I just sound like an idiot RIP me[/quote]

Yeah I know what you’re trying to say, but it just isn’t how it’s done in this game. I mean my last 4 arsenal crates have been something like an 18h booster, a 12h booster, another 18h booster and an expert case - in that order - so my odds are miles off too haha.

I’ve probably had what 10-12 arsenal crates since they were released and I think I’ve only had one 1h booster.

RNG is kinda dumb, but I’ve learnt to accept it now, especially if it’s coming out of something I obtained for free haha.

(Xenithos) #14

I want to say that I’ve opened about 12-20 of them, and I’ve only gotten about 3 one hour credit boosters. It’s not that I mind the credit boosters… I just wish the game would give me the ten crates or the other crates more often. A one hour credit booster isn’t even worth one case in standard play. (12*60=720) Sure, it means that in one hour of play you’ll make 1440, but compared to the old leveling with one case, you got an instant 1000$ guaranteed reward.

But, I digress, I really do like the new system!
(And of course, the above doesn’t count double or triple credit events! and is only for one hour!)

Edit: I realized I didn’t make my point: I really just think they should remove the one hour, and possibly the 3 hour credit boosters.

(Borganism) #15

Ive opened 2 so far, (hoarding some others for hopeful weapon kits) and ive only gotten an elite case and an expert case. RNG at its finest.

The reason why you hear more about people getting abnormally high 1 hour boosters is that they complain on forums and in game. People rarely say thankyou for their good luck in games like this, only turn to salt dispensers when they get bad luck.

Speaking of which, thanks SD for my arsenal cases so far. Much appreciated :smiley:

(doxjq) #16

[quote=“Borganism;192418”]Ive opened 2 so far, (hoarding some others for hopeful weapon kits) and ive only gotten an elite case and an expert case. RNG at its finest.

The reason why you hear more about people getting abnormally high 1 hour boosters is that they complain on forums and in game. People rarely say thankyou for their good luck in games like this, only turn to salt dispensers when they get bad luck.

Speaking of which, thanks SD for my arsenal cases so far. Much appreciated :D[/quote]

Open them up dude. They already confirmed that crates will only contain what was available at the time you earned the crate, and said there is no point hoarding them.

Unless I heard them wrong on the stream, someone else please confirm.

(Borganism) #17

Opened them up, I got a expert case which led to a swiss gold phantom and a … 1 hour credit booster! Serves me right for bragging about not getting one.

(ClemClem7) #18

@FrostyVampire
You’re right with your statistics, with 23% of probability, the expected value for 100 arsenal crate is 23 1h booster, then you expect 1 of them every 4.35 arsenal crate.
What said @Dox is that the probability of at least 2 drop in 4 cases is 22.8%, not that low. The probability of exactly 1 drop out of 4 cases is 42%. You may have a bad luck, but you’re in the 22.8% of people who are like you (and me…). It’s harder to have a 3 or 4 of them in 4 crates than have 0 of them.
With 8 1h boosters out of 15 crates, you’re in the 1% player Base which had at least 8 of them out of 15 crates. You’re very lucky.