Boosters vs cases

(derpyMoonMoon) #1

So if I am understanding this correctly, an equipment case costs 350 cycles with 1% drop chance, and the boosters cost 1,250 each and can stack up to 10 times, giving a 30% drop chance for a guaranteed card. Since you will most likely still be playing to keep getting cycles, credits, etc, let’s call that 100% chance for the sake of this argument.

100% drop chance with boosters, UP TO 12,500 cycles.
100% drop chance with cases, 35,000 cycles (with about 99 other loadouts, about one being silver and the rest below that).

So, if you are only interested in getting the event loadouts, and have plenty of loadout cards already, like me, is there any reason for anyone to buy the equipment cases? Are they just a waste?

(somberPlasma) #2

funny you calling it 100% chance with boosters, when i played for 50 matches with 10 boosters and didn’t get the case (got 25+ regular cases though) , they say its the same drop rate, but its not.

(BananaSlug) #3

if you buy 100 cases that dosent give you 100%…

(Jesus) #4

Boosters are a scam

(FalC_16) #5

cases are bigger scam

(Backuplight) #6

If you buy 100 cases, and want to get mathsy about it, you’ll have a ~36% chance to not get any event cards. 200 cases, it’s ~13% chance to not get one. I mean… I’d hate to be that guy who bought 200 cases and didn’t get anything, but 13% isn’t exactly unthinkable.

I’m not sure if I’ll end up blowing cycles on cases or the drop rate boosters, but I’m not dumping any more credits into it after buying enough cycles for the initial trinkets and such.

(Diosito) #7

If you buy cases/boosters, you’ll have a ~99% chance of being disappointed (thanks to the devs for that 1% drop chance).
If you don’y buy anything, well, just another day on DB.

Abbadon
Abaddon

(derpyMoonMoon) #8

Experimental probability vs theoretical probability is really what’s at work here. I’m level 26, almost 27 in game, and I’ve only gotten one cobalt from cases, including about 6 elite cases, whereas my friend, who’s level 13, has gotten 6 or 7. Sometimes RNGesus is just not in your favor.

[quote=“Backuplight;166816”]If you buy 100 cases, and want to get mathsy about it, you’ll have a ~36% chance to not get any event cards. 200 cases, it’s ~13% chance to not get one. I mean… I’d hate to be that guy who bought 200 cases and didn’t get anything, but 13% isn’t exactly unthinkable.
[/quote]

Can you tell me how you came up with that? I’ve been out of school for quite a few years, so I’m a bit rusty.

(Jostabeere) #9

Silver is 1.5%. I can count the Silvers I got from normal cases on one hand. And I’ve opened thousands over thousands of cases. Alone during the CW event I opened 1167 cases.
I bet you gonna spend ten or even hundred thousands of cycles before you actually get a card out of the normal cases.

(Backuplight) #10

[quote=“goodDeposit;166853”]Experimental probability vs theoretical probability is really what’s at work here. I’m level 26, almost 27 in game, and I’ve only gotten one cobalt from cases, including about 6 elite cases, whereas my friend, who’s level 13, has gotten 6 or 7. Sometimes RNGesus is just not in your favor.

[quote=“Backuplight;166816”]If you buy 100 cases, and want to get mathsy about it, you’ll have a ~36% chance to not get any event cards. 200 cases, it’s ~13% chance to not get one. I mean… I’d hate to be that guy who bought 200 cases and didn’t get anything, but 13% isn’t exactly unthinkable.
[/quote]

Can you tell me how you came up with that? I’ve been out of school for quite a few years, so I’m a bit rusty.[/quote]

So the probability of getting 1 is the easy bit, 1/100 - or as I did it, 99/100 to not get the event loadout. To calculate the probability of multiples, you multiply the probability by itself the number of times you’re attempting.

So for two attempts, 0.99 * 0.99 (or 0.99^2). Three attempts, 0.99 * 0.99 * 0.99 (or 0.99^3). All the way up to 0.99^100, which is 0.366 or 36.6% (multiply by 100 to get your percentage) to not get a single event loadout from 100 cases (which would cost 35,000 cycles (which is a little over 300k credits!)