Alright people, the math geek who understands how probability works has arrived.
Let’s get cracking.
If you’ve spent over $250, I’m going to guess that translates to about 65 Elite Cases. If you have gotten 5 Cobalt Cards from Elite Cases, then sir, I would like to inform you that despite your incredible 20-Silver streak, you are actually ahead of the curve on collecting Cobalt cards. The expected number of Cobalts obtained from 65 Elite Cases is just over 3. A quick cumulative binomial distribution calculation says that you have gotten the same or more Cobalt cards than what 78% of people would be expected to get with the same number of Elite Cases, so congrats, you’ve gotten more than what you’ve paid for. throws confetti
If it doesn’t feel like you’ve gotten your money’s worth, then I hate to inform you that you severely underestimated the cash value of the Cobalt cards.
You’re right, but for 18 ReV Case: 0,70^18 = 0,163%. Adding the 2 Elite cases will only decrease the chance…
I do not know how to calculate the exact odds, like with dependent and independent chances and stuff, but the point is that the odds of getting 20 silvers form 20 case is extremely low and may be bugged…
And as long as there is no trade-system, people that pay big bucks for cases should at least be guaranteed a gold card.[/quote]
The odds of getting 20 out of 20 isn’t low. It is still high because every case on its own has a high chance. You don’t get better odds if your previous case had a Silver or a lesser chance on a Silver. Sadly I’m not enough of a math pro to explain it correctly.
I don’t try to defend the system, because it’s crap in my eyes aswell and people get way too little for the money they pay, but the odds are really higher than ~0.1%.[/quote]
@Jostabeere - Separate case openings are independent from each other, so the chance of getting 20 Silvers in the row is very simply the probabilities of getting a Silver multiplied together with each other 20 times. If the 18 ReV cases had a 70% and the 2 others had 80%, then the odds for getting all Silver cards comes out at (0.7^18)*(.8^2)=0.00104 or 1 out of 960. So no, getting 20 out of 20 Silvers is not even remotely high. The decrease in probability is exponential with each additional trial.
The thing you have to understand about a 70% is that you can expect to get an average of 1 or 2 Gold+ cards for every five cases you open. It’s almost a 1/3 chance to get a Gold+ card, so if you go more than 9 cases only getting Silver cards, you’re straying pretty damn far from what you’re “supposed” or rather expected to get. 20 in a row is simply incredible.
@Ford_Prefect - Probability calculations say that there’s a 4% probability of going 62 Elite Cases without a Cobalt, 67% of not getting one from 13 Expert Cases, and 82% of not getting one from 200 standard cases. Put it all together and you get a spectacular 2.3% chance of not getting a Cobalt card directly from those cases. Pretty bad.
@Yes - Dude, the odds of going 32 Elite Cases without anything more than a Silver is 0.08%, or 1 in 1260. That, well, that’s really really awful luck.
