20,000 Credits - The One Day Grind

(Melinder) #41

“What ever the “case” may be, opening a number of boxes oppose to opening one every hour, the probability of you getting a rarity card is higher.”

This is incorrect. You’re basically saying that 100/1000 is more than 1/10, which it is not.

Cobalts for example are 1/1000 for a drop. if u open 1000 cases, mathematically, you’ll get 1 cobalt. if u open 10, you’ll get 0.01 Cobalts. Therefore all you have to do is repeat the 10 case opening 100 times to receive an identical drop-rate to a flat 1000 case opening.

(ev1ldarks) #42

[quote=“insightfulHelicopter;49795”]Ahh, the probabilities…
So we have 3 doors, behind those doors are 2 goats and 1 car…
You choose one door
The game master open one of the other 2 doors with a goat (he can’t open the car door or your door)
Do you stay on your door or do you switch to the other?
You have 30 minutes
[/quote]

You call an airstrike B)

(RuleofBooKz) #43

id call my goat floppsieturtles and he’d be my bestest friend ever and id love him and pet him and love him he’d be my floppsieturte goat we’d get along like two peas in a pod

(titaniumCrouton) #44

[quote=“insightfulHelicopter;49795”]Ahh, the probabilities…
So we have 3 doors, behind those doors are 2 goats and 1 car…
You choose one door
The game master open one of the other 2 doors with a goat (he can’t open the car door or your door)
Do you stay on your door or do you switch to the other?
You have 30 minutes
[/quote]

You change doors. Before when you picked a door you had 1/3 chances of getting the car. However when he opens a door and ask if you want to change you now have 1/2 chances of getting the car, so switching is the logical choice.

(Frogteam) #45

[quote=“insightfulHelicopter;49795”]Ahh, the probabilities…
So we have 3 doors, behind those doors are 2 goats and 1 car…
You choose one door
The game master open one of the other 2 doors with a goat (he can’t open the car door or your door)
Do you stay on your door or do you switch to the other?
You have 30 minutes
[/quote]

Same probabilities if you stay or switch. There will always be two doors you can choose, one with a goat one with a car, no matter which door you started at.

But if you want to win, all you need to do is listen for the goats, you have half an hour and goats are loud. Just figure out which of your two doors isn’t producing goat sounds, then choose the other one, cause we all really wanted the goat.

(lavaFeline) #46

[quote=“insightfulHelicopter;49795”]Ahh, the probabilities…
So we have 3 doors, behind those doors are 2 goats and 1 car…
You choose one door
The game master open one of the other 2 doors with a goat (he can’t open the car door or your door)
Do you stay on your door or do you switch to the other?
You have 30 minutes
[/quote]

You switch.
(I saw that Mythbusters too!)

(Gi.Am) #47

It doesn’t really matter what you do. Yes the probabilities are right 1/3 vs 1/2. If you would look at say all participants of the gameshow over the years (say 5000 or more) you would indeed find that the ones choosing to switch won more often than those that didn’t switch (roughly matching the expected probabilities).
However you are not playing 5000 or 100 times you are playing once. It was a once in a lifetime event, that you were allowed to participate in goats or car the ultimate gameshow for the family.

And if you got it right in the first place and switch now you will loose. yes you increased the probability to 50/50. But thats still pure chance and not really an improvement if you play only once.