20,000 Credits - The One Day Grind

(D'@athi) #21

Yes, there could be also an algorythm inserted in the drawing-process of the loadout, which is based on what mercs “the game” thinks, you should buy, or that you get better? loadouts for buying the cases, or bases on how well you played.
As long as we don’t know what it is for sure, it doesn’t matter. All we know for sure are the probabilities writting on the cases, and that we can get multiple times the exact same loadout in a row.
So all we know are the probabilities, the sequence doesn’t matter, and that all loadouts are availible for every draw.
Which tells me… Open your cases when you feel like it having luck or time, until we know anything exact about the algorythm they are using.

(Gi.Am) #22

It doesn’t matter how the randomization is set up. It is random. Let me illustrate with the oldest Random Number Generator known to men, a dice.

If you role a dice it doesn’t matter wether someone roles it in a cup and shows you the dice afterwards (analogues to “a random card is generated on buying a case”). Or if you role the dice on the spot (analogues to “a random card is generated when opening a case”). The Number you get is random period, no way to influence that.
Likewise it doesn’t matter wether you role 10 dices at the same time and note the numbers (analogues to “open 10 cases one after another”) or roll 1 dice 10 times and note the numbers (analogues to “open a case per day”).

In each instance what you get is purely random. As long as the dices are not manipulated (or the RNG is a sufficently true RNG) you can’t influence the outcome.

(Yes) #23

You say grind, I say playing the game.

(c00face) #24

[quote=“Gi.Am;49749”]It doesn’t matter how the randomization is set up. It is random. Let me illustrate with the oldest Random Number Generator known to men, a dice.

If you role a dice it doesn’t matter wether someone roles it in a cup and shows you the dice afterwards (analogues to “a random card is generated on buying a case”). Or if you role the dice on the spot (analogues to “a random card is generated when opening a case”). The Number you get is random period, no way to influence that.
Likewise it doesn’t matter wether you role 10 dices at the same time and note the numbers (analogues to “open 10 cases one after another”) or roll 1 dice 10 times and note the numbers (analogues to “open a case per day”). [/quote]

Luck is a dependent variable. It’s dependent on how many times you roll the dice, and how many dices are in your hand. If I threw 10 dices at the same time, the dependent variable L (luck) will also increase.

If I threw one dice each day. The variable L becomes a small percentage factor.

(Ghosthree3) #25

But if you threw 10 dice over 10 days the overall luck factor is the same…

(c00face) #26

It’s not.

(ev1ldarks) #27

So the conclusion is … better study rather than farm video games ?

Just kidding ^^

(D'@athi) #28

It’s not.[/quote]

[video]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTk3E4xefhc[/video]

[quote=“ev1ldarks;49765”]So the conclusion is … better study rather than farm video games ?

Just kidding ^^
[/quote]

Probably.

(Gi.Am) #29

Uhm luck is not a variable and most certainly not a dependend one. I think what you are mistaking is probability/chance but those describe the likelyhood how often an event will occur in a sufficently large sample. Randomness however laughs in the face of probability.

Lets get back to the dice.
Now everyone knows the probability to get a certain number is 1 out of 6. Problem is what number the dice will roll unto is purely random (means there is no way to predict the outcome). It is always random no matter how often you roll. Everyone who has ever rolled a dice knows that. If you roll a dice 6 times you are not hitting every number once because every re-roll is an independent event. The probability to land on a certain number is the same with every roll. So its very likely that you got certain numbers twice or more, while not getting other numbers at all.

Now mathematics/statistics are not wrong. But because of randomness it can’t predict or even influence the outcome of a single throw. However in the long run (read large amount of samples), because randomness is indiscriminate, it will approach the predicted distribution. If you roll the dice lets say 100 times you will see that you roughly start to get the same ammount for each number. Increase it to 10000 and it will be pretty accurate (still not perfect).

Sample size is very important. If a card has a probability of 1% (1 out of 100) it doesn’t mean that you can count on having 1 of those cards by the time you opened 100 cases.
One person might not have a single card another might already gotten 3.
Probability only means that it is very likely that by the time you have opened lets say 1000 boxes that both will roughly have gotten 10 (but its not a absolute number one might be having 9 someone else might have 11 or 10).

And to bring it back to the starting point. It doesn’t matter how you increase the sample size wether you do it, one at a time or ten times in a row or whatever. The question wether you get something nice is random and is the same every single case opening. But for sufficently large numbers of case openings you will roughly approach the % distributions the case indicates.

PS. Personaly I operate with a vastly easier system when it comes to probability as soon as a RNG is involved. The chance is 50/50 either I get what I want or I don’t. reflects small sample sizes perfect and causes alot less headaches.

(insightfulHelicopter) #30

Ahh, the probabilities…
So we have 3 doors, behind those doors are 2 goats and 1 car…
You choose one door
The game master open one of the other 2 doors with a goat (he can’t open the car door or your door)
Do you stay on your door or do you switch to the other?
You have 30 minutes

(D'@athi) #31

You chose a new one…

edit: but only because the conditions changed

(Rjsto) #32

I can’t even begin to understand how you can think your changes differentiating from the given percent possibilities for the rarities based on how many packs you open at once. There’s no luck factor, there’s no skill factor, it deosn’t matter if RNG is done buying the case or opening the case, the percent chance is given right theeeere and it’s the same for every case

(Aazhyd) #33

You get free cases a lot when you’re low level. Higher up they’re more rare. I get the impression it has to do with the XP needed for the next level. At regular intervals, you’ll get a case.

But I might be wrong.

(Rjsto) #34

[quote=“insightfulHelicopter;49795”]Ahh, the probabilities…
So we have 3 doors, behind those doors are 2 goats and 1 car…
You choose one door
The game master open one of the other 2 doors with a goat (he can’t open the car door or your door)
Do you stay on your door or do you switch to the other?
You have 30 minutes
[/quote]

In logical sense, doesn’t matter. In mathematical sense, you pick a new one. Mathematical way is completely hypothetical though. In practice the chances for your door change when wrong doors are picked out

(Ghosthree3) #35

[quote=“Aazhyd;49814”]You get free cases a lot when you’re low level. Higher up they’re more rare. I get the impression it has to do with the XP needed for the next level. At regular intervals, you’ll get a case.

But I might be wrong.[/quote]
Kinda, you get a case per level but they don’t really add up to many compared to all the dropped ones you get in game. Consider this, I’ve played around 300 hours now, I’m level 38, that means I’ve had 37 cases from levels. But I have 406 loadouts. I’ve bought 18 Bronze ones as well.

That means I’ve had 351 cases drop. Really that outshines cases from levels massively. True if I was leveling faster - as you do at lower levels - the ratio of drops to level rewards would be closer. But really it’s still so much less.

(frolicsomeCrane) #36

[quote=“ghostBase;49636”]You get 10,000 Credits when you level up to level 2,3, and 4 which adds up to 30,000 credits in levelling rewards.

20,000 points in a stopwatch match gets you about 400~450 Credits. The average is 15,000~18,000 and it takes you up to 30 minutes to complete one match, which is a whopping 900 credits per hour IF you manage to get 20k points in both matches.
55 hours of gametime to unlock a single merc, without missions. And even with missions it took me about as long since I was dumb enough to spend my initial 30k on cases.

League of Legends is a horrible game in general though so I’d still prefer to play Dirty Bomb for 55 hours.[/quote]

I managed to get 500 with 22k points, but points don’t really matter, only the time it takes for a match to be complete matters.

(Jostabeere) #37

[quote=“ghostBase;49636”]You get 10,000 Credits when you level up to level 2,3, and 4 which adds up to 30,000 credits in levelling rewards.

20,000 points in a stopwatch match gets you about 400~450 Credits. The average is 15,000~18,000 and it takes you up to 30 minutes to complete one match, which is a whopping 900 credits per hour IF you manage to get 20k points in both matches.
55 hours of gametime to unlock a single merc, without missions. And even with missions it took me about as long since I was dumb enough to spend my initial 30k on cases.

League of Legends is a horrible game in general though so I’d still prefer to play Dirty Bomb for 55 hours.[/quote]

Have 80 Hrs playtime and have 2x 50K mercs and 2x 30K mercs.

(Tomme) #38

First, want to earn credits? Do missions. Second, oh god some of the posts in this thread were painful to read, like, I think I lost several thousand brain cells reading them.

(Daergar) #39

At least the utter failure at basic math shown in this thread demonstrates why gambling establishments are so lucrative.

signs various wards to prevent loss of functional synapses through magical osmosis

(Dirmagnos) #40

A lot of writing over ntohing.
Open 10 cases at once, or 1 each day for 10 days, will have exactly same chance to drop “good” loadouts.
Considering that drop percentage is calculated on per case basis, only factor that affects chances for “better” cards is amount of cases opened, not timing.
And this whole crap about “better” loadouts is also rather annoying. Card quality is topped at bronze level, anything above that is purely cosmetical, and often looks like crap(just today had a game with Nader on my team with high level loadout card, whos skin had red in it - guy got shot by own team probably more than opponents did).
Currently i have 2 cobalt cards, and both are a total and absolute crap. Good thing i got those from cases, otherwise it would a waste of money and golden cards.