190 equipment cases

[Atagi]

I opened 190 equipment cases. I want to share the results here.

Lead: 150 - 78,95 %
Iron: 25 - 13,16 %
Bronze: 13 - 6,84 %
Silver: 2 - 1,05 %

No Gold , Special Edition or Cobalt. The rate seems to be almost right. The bronze was more than double.

http://i.imgur.com/sKL2p7k.png

[SereneFlight1]

It’s not “almost right”, it’s right.

[Atagi]

If it would be right then the Bronze would be only 3%. Thats why I wrote almost right.

[Jostabeere]

And that’s why you can’t take probabilities as flat-rate.

[SereneFlight1]

If it would be right then the Bronze would be only 3%. Thats why I wrote almost right.

3% ≠ You will get guaranteed 3 bronze cards for every 100 cases you open.
3% = You have 3% chance to get a bronze card from a single case.

[ImSploosh]

[quote=“Atagi;139180”]If it would be right then the Bronze would be only 3%. Thats why I wrote almost right.

3% ≠ You will get guaranteed 3 bronze cards for every 100 cases you open.
3% = You have 3% chance to get a bronze card from a single case.[/quote]

This.

Sadly, there’s no guarantee you’ll get any card better than Lead. Technically, you can get 100 leads in a row, though the probability for this is very low. RNG is exactly that, completely fucking random because it goes by each case.

[TheVulpesFox]

Difference between theoretical probability and experimental probability.

[XavienX]

It’s not almost right. Cobalt = -500% chance.

[jemstar]

As with all random chances the probability is reset for each time you open a case so you could have opened them all and got all lead.

[FireWorks]

As with all random chances the probability is reset for each time you open a case so you could have opened them all and got all lead.

Possible, but pretty unlikely to happen in your, mine and the OPs life time with case openings:

0.797^190 = 1.89269688*10^-19 = 0.000000000000000000189269688

0.0000000000000000189269688% is low…

[ProfPlump]

[quote=“Atagi;22852”]I opened 190 equipment cases. I want to share the results here.

Lead: 150 - 78,95 %
Iron: 25 - 13,16 %
Bronze: 13 - 6,84 %
Silver: 2 - 1,05 %

No Gold , Special Edition or Cobalt. The rate seems to be almost right. The bronze was more than double.

http://i.imgur.com/sKL2p7k.png[/quote]

What’s the point of this…? Are you trying to ‘prove’ that the odds aren’t correct…? Cause 190 cases definitely isn’t enough trials to prove anything.

[FireWorks]

BTW I did this with over 1700 crates. The results are within confidence interval.

But I still dont have a single cobalt^^

[HunterAssassin5]

thing is, people usually just…how do i put it…think in one direction, i guess, when it comes to percentage.
people think that a 0.1% to score a cobalt will eventually become 1% if they roll the dice enough.
thing is, you started off with a 99.9% chance to not score a cobalt, why is it that you can get to 99% chance to not score a cobalt? following the same line of reason, you should get something like a 99.99% chance instead.

TL;DR

[quote=“Atagi;139180”]If it would be right then the Bronze would be only 3%. Thats why I wrote almost right.

3% ≠ You will get guaranteed 3 bronze cards for every 100 cases you open.
3% = You have 3% chance to get a bronze card from a single case.[/quote]

[SirMurder]

It’s not almost right. Cobalt = -500% chance.

Say that again please

[KattiValk]

[quote=“SirMurder;139625”]
Say that again please

[/quote]https://media.giphy.com/media/axHNvAAKA3gXe/giphy.gif

I want that so badly right now. >_<

[3rsh]

[quote=“Xavien;139494”]It’s not almost right. Cobalt = -500% chance.

Say that again please

[/quote]

http://s8.postimg.org/s0qowxr03/2015_11_01_00001.jpg
http://s30.postimg.org/il9rcgfr4/2015_11_05_00001.jpg