I AM DONE


(retief) #21

Some math on the trade up system. Trading up lead cards to bronze takes 2.5k credits and has a 1 in 9 chance of being the specific loadout you want (assuming you have one optimal loadout that you are looking for). You will spend an average of 22.5k credits if you try to get a specific bronze loadout you want via trading from up from lead.

Alternately, you can spend 17.5k credits and buy the specific loadout you want from the store. You save an average of 5k credits and don’t have to worry about bad rng, but you don’t get a bunch of other shitty bronze loadouts. Overall, one of these options sounds better than the other.

Also, don’t even think about crafting silver+ loadouts from lead. Even silver loadouts cost 12k a pop, and gold loadouts cost 52k if you are starting from lead. Crafting these loadouts from lead is equivalent to throwing credits down the drain. If you have hundreds of thousands of them and nothing to spend them on, have fun. Don’t be surprised if you get nothing of value in return, though.

To be fair, if you have the bronze loadouts sitting around, crafting a new silver is cheaper than crafting a bronze from leads. However, it is still less efficient than just buying your bronze loadout of choice directly (18k average cost vs 17.5k guaranteed cost).

Also, if the trade up odds are fair, there is a 0.17% chance of not getting your desired loadout after crafting 54 random bronze+ loadouts for your desired merc. If a thousand people try to craft 54 random bronze+ loadouts, there is an 82% chance that someone fails to get their loadout of choice. Congrats, you are that lucky someone. Have a t-shirt.


(sentimentalDime) #22

[quote=“BloodyGustav;103075”][quote=“Rjsto;103072”]I’m waiting to see you give any kind of proof there is any kind of scam going on. You don’t happen to line all your hats with folio too?

Oh, and for the record, I’ve not put a single penny on the game. you can just buy the bronze loadouts for credits, lol[/quote]

My last words to this is, the numbers support my theory, mathematics is the language of the universe and it’s never wrong.All you nay sayers have is your unfounded opinion that is backed up by nothing else then the trust that SD/Nexon did put the same drop chance on all loudouts without any prof that it is the truth.

I won’t reply to any other of your questions because i don’t want to get this thread locked too because of… reasons.[/quote]
@BloodyGustav
since we’re talking about proof, what sort of proof do you have? That you got unlucky? That’s not proof. Even if you had 99.97% chance of getting the loadout you wanted, it’s still not proof.

I’m pretty sure the non conspiracy theorist are doing better in terms of proof than you are.


(Monty) #23

[quote=“BloodyGustav;103034”]I up traded from Lead to Gold/Silver (54 up trades) and all i got was 1 loadout with M4 and that one is bad too.

http://fs5.directupload.net/images/151101/kykrcdlb.jpg

Would like to see a compensation for that, i’m not taking the “bad RNG we are sorry card”

[/quote]
Actually, you got the two best Timik cards, the best available loadouts in my opinion. The ones with Mechanic and Quick Eye/Double Time. Mechanic makes you pseudo-engineer, while Quick Eye lets you move and scope distant targets, where as Double Time enables you to sprint and reload thus greatly increasing your mobility.


(BloodyGustav) #24

@sentimentalDime

first off both our theorys are only that theorys

mine is backed by data that is leading me to believe nexon/sd has a rigged system in place.

you say i’m wrong because i draw that 0,2% chance of not getting the card i wanted.

how can i proof that you are wrong?

i would need to have insight into the drop-chance of each loadout or the data how often each loadout got rolled.Nexus/SD aren’t making them public, so there is no way to proof it.

how can you proof i’m wrong?

it’s the same, you can’t

If we could get the numbers of all yet crafted Stoker loadouts we could make our point and say “here you have it”.
But we can’t and have to go by the numbers at hand and they show to me it’s more then fishy.


(LifeupOmega) #25

It’s almost like RNG is… RNG. Wow.


(DMaster2) #26

[quote=“BloodyGustav;103188”]@sentimentalDime

first off both our theorys are only that theorys

mine is backed by data that is leading me to believe nexon/sd has a rigged system in place.

you say i’m wrong because i draw that 0,2% chance of not getting the card i wanted.

how can i proof that you are wrong?

i would need to have insight into the drop-chance of each loadout or the data how often each loadout got rolled.Nexus/SD aren’t making them public, so there is no way to proof it.

how can you proof i’m wrong?

it’s the same, you can’t

If we could get the numbers of all yet crafted Stoker loadouts we could make our point and say “here you have it”.
But we can’t and have to go by the numbers at hand and they show to me it’s more then fishy.

[/quote]
People have pulled cobalt cards out of equipment cases before. That’s 0.1% chance to happen. But it happens. You were on the short end of the stick. It sucks. Just deal with it.


(sentimentalDime) #27

[quote=“BloodyGustav;103188”]@sentimentalDime

first off both our theorys are only that theorys

mine is backed by data that is leading me to believe nexon/sd has a rigged system in place.

you say i’m wrong because i draw that 0,2% chance of not getting the card i wanted.

how can i proof that you are wrong?

i would need to have insight into the drop-chance of each loadout or the data how often each loadout got rolled.Nexus/SD aren’t making them public, so there is no way to proof it.

how can you proof i’m wrong?

it’s the same, you can’t

If we could get the numbers of all yet crafted Stoker loadouts we could make our point and say “here you have it”.
But we can’t and have to go by the numbers at hand and they show to me it’s more then fishy.

[/quote]
@BloodyGustav
I know getting dicked by that 0.17% sucks, but it’s not rigged. You might pull the best loadout for your favourite merc in cobalt edition in the next case you open, and you might not.

I did several trade ups for Stoker, including 3 for cobalts, guess what, i got 3 Stark loadouts, but i’m not mad, because i know that’s how RNG works, and just happened to be that unlucky guy who pulled the short straw.


(B_Montiel) #28

[quote=“BloodyGustav;103188”]@sentimentalDime

first off both our theorys are only that theorys

mine is backed by data that is leading me to believe nexon/sd has a rigged system in place.

you say i’m wrong because i draw that 0,2% chance of not getting the card i wanted.

how can i proof that you are wrong?

i would need to have insight into the drop-chance of each loadout or the data how often each loadout got rolled.Nexus/SD aren’t making them public, so there is no way to proof it.

how can you proof i’m wrong?

it’s the same, you can’t

If we could get the numbers of all yet crafted Stoker loadouts we could make our point and say “here you have it”.
But we can’t and have to go by the numbers at hand and they show to me it’s more then fishy.

[/quote]

I can’t proof you’re wrong, but I can explain why it is totally possible to happen as I already did. When stoker got released, I had 20+ irons in store to get bronze stoker loadouts, and as much as much I can possibly get. With less than 10 trade-ups, I received 7 out 9 different stoker loadouts. This might be even further unlikely to happen than your case.
Probability and statistics are rarely customer-friendly. If we wanted to represent a repartition in the success of having an expected loadout out of trade-ups, we would surely see a Gaussian-like repartition (not an exact one, as having the expected loadout is possible after one trade-up, but you can also never get it with an infinite amount of trade-ups done). You’re just WAY out the center (which should be around 50%), and this is totally possible. Rare but possible. Not rigged.


(BananaSlug) #29

i will be crafting new gold for stoker tomorrow…
i only want automatic weapon… please ;-;


(FalC_16) #30

this is why I don’t spend a cent until the RNG on loadout roll gets nerfed. I would be happy to toss some cash to support the game…but there is no motivation. Watching Sniff’s videos…you have to spend hundreds of dollars to get what you want…

if there would be a premium account kind of system like in world of tanks…I would go for it. Lets say to farm credits faster…the credit boosters are too expensive imho too


(Yes) #31

1/2 of my CW loadouts for Stoker has Stark.
3/7 of my gold loadouts for Stoker has Stark.
My silver loadout for Stoker has Stark.
0/10 of my loadouts are one of the 2 that I wanted.

I would have loved the Stark before the nerf.


(SpinnerzNQ) #32

[quote=“Sniff;103047”]Sounds like you got, burned.

[spoiler]
http://i.imgur.com/km355dQ.png
[/spoiler][/quote]

No need to brag Sniffy. Though I really want that special timik one


(LifeupOmega) #33

Oh yeah so adding to RNG fun my friend got a Cobalt Stark Stoker today. 10 minutes later he crafted the exact same one in Cobalt.

R N G


(Ctrix) #34

MissMurder said in the sticky to not craft anymore cards until they rework the system you fool. Stop it.


(neg0ne) #35

how pathetic. in germany we call this kindergarten.

You play a game, you pick the short strew, and then you want a refund … ?? you claim that something is wrong just because you didn´t get what you want? thats acting like a little spoiled brat.
just go and get the card you want and stop whining.


(sentimentalDime) #36

@Ctrix
They won’t be reworking the Trade Up system, at least we don’t know it, they’ll only be reworking the Trade In system.